Abram N. Shulsky

Gary James Schmitt

Learn about the real world of intelligence work

Understanding the World of Intelligence

Silent Warfare

Gary Schmitt

China's recent reforms have led to unprecedented economic growth; if this continues, China will be able to turn its great potential power into actual power. The result could be, in the very long term, the rise of China as a rival to the United States as the world's predominant power; in the nearer term, China could become a significant rival in the East Asian region. In this context, the issue for U.S. policy is how to handle a rising power, a problem that predominant powers have faced many times throughout history. It is the contention of this report that the future Sino-U.S. context will illustrate many of the problems of deterrence theory that have been discussed in recent decades; deterrence theory will be, in general, more difficult to apply than it was in the U.S.-Soviet Cold War context. The key may be to seek nonmilitary means of deterrence, i.e., diplomatic ways to manipulate the tension to China's disadvantage.

Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior

Gary J. Schmitt

A thoroughly updated revision of the first comprehensive overview of intelligence designed for both the student and the general reader, Silent Warfare is an insider's guide to a shadowy, often misunderstood world. Leading intelligence scholars Abram N. Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt clearly explain such topics as the principles of collection, analysis, counterintelligence, and covert action, and their interrelationship with policymakers and democratic values. This new edition takes account of the expanding literature in the field of intelligence and deals with the consequences for intelligence of vast recent changes in telecommunication and computer technology the new "information age." It also reflects the world's strategic changes since the end of the Cold War. This landmark book provides a valuable framework for understanding today's headlines, as well as the many developments likely to come in the real world of the spy.

Abram N. Shulsky

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