Andrew I. Dale

This a history of the use of Bayes' theorem over 150 years, from its discovery by Thomas Bayes to the rise of the statistical competitors in the first third of the twentieth century. In the new edition, the author's concern is the foundations of statistics, in particular, the examination of the development of one of the fundamental aspects of Bayesian statistics. The reader will find new sections on contributors to the theory omitted from the first edition, which will shed light on the use of inverse probability by nineteenth century authors. In addition, there is amplified discussion of relevant work from the first edition. This text will be a valuable reference source in the wider field of the history of statistics and probability.

From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson, 2nd edition

A History of Inverse Probability

Samuel Kotz

Arthur Lyon Bowley, the founding father of modern statistics, was an important and colorful figure and a leader in cementing the foundations of statistical methodology, including survey methodology, and of the applications of statistics to economical and social issues during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In many respects, he was ahead of his time. The giants in this field around that time were largely concentrated in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries; among these contributors, Arthur Bowley was one of the most active in revolutionizing statistical methodology and its economic applications. However, Bowley has been vastly undervalued by subsequent commentators ? while hundreds of articles and books have been written on Karl Pearson, those on Arthur Bowley amount to a dozen or less. This book seeks to remedy this and fill in an important omission in the monographical literature on the history of statistics. In particular, the recent resurgence of interest in poverty research has led to a renewed interest in Bowley's legacy.

A Pioneer in Modern Statistics and Economics

Arthur L Bowley

It is thought as necessary to write a Preface before a Book, as it is judged civil, when you invite a Friend to Dinner, to proffer him a Glass of Hock beforehand for a Whet. John Arbuthnot, from the preface to his translation of Huygens's "De Ratiociniis in Ludo Alooe". Prompted by an awareness of the importance of Bayesian ideas in modern statistical theory and practice, I decided some years ago to undertake a study of the development and growth of such ideas. At the time it seemed appropriate to begin such an investigation with an examination of Bayes's Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances and Laplace's Theorie analytique des probabilites, and then to pass swiftly on to a brief consideration of other nineteenth century works before turning to what would be the main topic of the treatise, videlicet the rise of Bayesian statis tics from the 1950's to the present day. It soon became apparent, however, that the amount of Bayesian work published was such that a thorough investigation of the topic up to the 1980's would require several volumes - and also run the risk of incurring the wrath of extant authors whose writings would no doubt be misrepre sented, or at least be so described. It seemed wise, therefore, to restrict the period and the subject under study in some way, and I decided to con centrate my attention on inverse probability from Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson.

From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson

"Interesting and useful as all this will be for anyone interested in knowing more about Bayes, this is just part of the riches contained in this book . . . Beyond doubt this book is a work of the highest quality in terms of the scholarship it displays, and should be regarded as a must for every mathematical library." --MAA ONLINE

The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes

Most Honourable Remembrance

This is a history of the use of Bayes theoremfrom its discovery by Thomas Bayes to the rise of the statistical competitors in the first part of the twentieth century. The book focuses particularly on the development of one of the fundamental aspects of Bayesian statistics, and in this new edition readers will find new sections on contributors to the theory. In addition, this edition includes amplified discussion of relevant work.

Most Honourable Remembrance provides an in-depth discussion of the life and work of Thomas Bayes, an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and lay mathematician who planted the seed of modern Bayesian Statistics in 1763 with his posthumous, An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. After biographical details of Bayes' ancestors, consideration is turned to what is known of Thomas Bayes, the time in which he lived, and also the town in which he spent the major part of his professional life, Tunbridge Wells. Bayes' published works, ranging from a theological tract to one on fluxions, are reprinted in full and commented upon. Unpublished works, with commentary, are also included, special attention being given to a manuscript notebook in which some early work on a result from the above mentioned Essay may be found. The book concludes with a chapter on Bunhill Fields Burial Ground, where the Bayes family vault is still to be seen and where many prominent Nonconformists were interred. This book is the first to provide a biography and full discussion of Bayes' works and will be of interest to modern Bayesian statisticians as well as to mathematicians who may well be surprised at some of the mathematical insights shown by Bayes and which are not generally known to be attributable to him.

Andrew I. Dale

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