Antoine Bouveret

Maksym Markevych

Ms. Grace Jackson

Pierre Bardin

Alexander S Malden

Santiago Texidor Mora

Indulekha Thomas

In their efforts to strengthen the effectiveness of Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism Frameworks across the Nordic-Baltic Region (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden), the Governors of the Nordic-Baltic Central Banks reached out to the IMF to request technical assistance. The request stems from various international money laundering banking scandals (ABLV, Danske Bank, Nordea, Swedbank), involving cross-border payments by non-residents that exposed financial integrity risks in the financial sector of the region, attracting international scrutiny on the level of non-resident Money Laundering/Terrorist Financing ML/TF risks and highlighting the vulnerabilities related to AML/CFT risk-based supervision of banks in the region. The flagship project relied on a novel methodology to leverage data analysis to understand ML/TF threats and vulnerabilities and their potential impact on financial stability, and developed country and regional recommendations. Notably, the project involved an analysis of (i)potentially high-risk financial flows to and from the region; (ii) the AML/CFT domestic and regional supervisory landscape related to banks and virtual assets; and (iii) the potential implications of financial integrity shocks on financial stability.

Nordic-Baltic Technical Assistance Project – Financial Flows Analysis, AML/CFT Supervision, and Financial Stability

Project Summary:

David Jones

Mr.Peter Breuer

Ms.Yingyuan Chen

Tsuyoshi Sasaki

Changes in the structure of the U.S. Treasury market over recent years may have increased risks to financial stability. Traditional market makers have changed their liquidity provision by increasingly switching from risk warehousing to risk distribution, and a new breed of market maker has emerged with the rise of electronic trading. The “flash rally” of October 15, 2014 provides a clear example of how those risks can materialize. Based on an in-depth analysis of the event—complementing the authorities’ work—we suggest i) providing incentives for liquidity provision, ii) improving market safeguards, and iii) enhancing the regulation of the Treasury market.

Lessons from the “Flash Rally” of October 15, 2014

Fragilities in the U.S. Treasury Market

Jie Yu

This paper assesses liquidity risk for the United States (U.S.) bond mutual funds industry and performs a range of analyses to identify which fund categories are more vulnerable to distress than others, and how sales from funds can impact financial stability. We develop a new measure to identify vulnerable categories based on expected outflows labelled ‘Flows in Distress’. Overall, most U.S. mutual funds are resilient yet high yield (HY) and loan funds would face a liquidity shortfall when faced with severe redemption shocks. Combined sales from funds can have a sizeable price impact. Finally, our contagion analysis using data on fund flows and returns shows that Investment Grade (IG) corporate bonds funds, municipal bond funds and government bond funds are more likely to spread distress to other fund categories than HY, EM and loan funds. When the first type of funds experiences stress, other funds categories are likely to experience stress as well.

Risks and Vulnerabilities in the U.S. Bond Mutual Fund Industry

Antoine Bouveret

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