Mark J. Machina

Bertrand Munier

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making mixes a selection of papers, presented at the Eighth Foundations and Applications of Utility and Risk Theory (`FUR VIII') conference in Mons, Belgium, together with a few solicited papers from well-known authors in the field. This book addresses some of the questions that have recently emerged in the research on decision-making and risk theory. In particular, authors have modeled more and more as interactions between the individual and the environment or between different individuals the emergence of beliefs as well as the specific type of information treatment traditionally called `rationality'. This book analyzes several cases of such an interaction and derives consequences for the future of decision theory and risk theory. In the last ten years, modeling beliefs has become a specific sub-field of decision making, particularly with respect to low probability events. Rational decision making has also been generalized in order to encompass, in new ways and in more general situations than it used to be fitted to, multiple dimensions in consequences. This book deals with some of the most conspicuous of these advances. It also addresses the difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously into one single decision model. And it offers perspectives about the future trends of modeling such complex decision questions. The volume is organized in three main blocks: The first block is the more `traditional' one. It deals with new extensions of the existing theory, as is always demanded by scientists in the field. A second block handles specific elements in the development of interactions between individuals and their environment, as defined in the most general sense. The last block confronts real-world problems in both financial and non-financial markets and decisions, and tries to show what kind of contributions can be brought to them by the type of research reported on here.

in Decision Making

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences

Melvin Shakun

Financial support from the following institutions, in addition to the personal contributions of the 200 parti cipants, made the conference an enjoyable event - Universite d' Aix-Narseille III - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - City of Aix-en-Provence - Faculte d'Economie Appliquee - G.R.A.S.C.E. Association Fran~aise de Science economique - Air France - Chambre de Commerce et d'Industrie de Marseille - Chambre Regionale de Commerce et d'Industrie (Provence - Alpes - Cote d'Azur - Corse) - Compagnie Fran~aise des Petroles - Conseil General des Bouches-du-Rhone - Conseil Regional (Provence - Alpes - Cote d'Azur) - Electricite de France - Societe Lyonnaise de Banque - Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer Fran~ais - Union des Assurances de Paris. Both before and during the conference, Hs. Daniele Durieu, Martine Harciano, Magali Orillard and Catherine pivot managed to avoid an always imminent chaos. P. Batteau, C. Jameux, J.L. Le Hoigne and J. de Montgolfier helped intensively in the organizing committee. The preparation of the manuscript owes much to Daniele Durieu and Isabelle ~1ichelot. J .A. Bartoli was most helpful in com~uterizing the preparation of the general index. He also benefited in this last respect of the help of our students I. Bouchet, R. Bout, P. de Cibeins, S. Delaye, C. Mallie, C. Martin, J-F. Morhain, J-C. Picton, N. Vock, all at the Faculte d'Economie Appliquee in Aix-en-Provence.

Compromise, Negotiation and Group Decision

R. Duncan Luce

Mohammed Abdellaoui

This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Coverage also examines alternative ways to deal with risk and risk attitude concepts. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection rather than on mere intuition.

Bertrand Munier

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