Breisinger, Clemens

Ecker, Olivier

Al-Riffai, Perrihan

Yu, Bingxin

This report aims to inform and stimulate the debate on key policy priorities for poverty reduction and food security in light of the Arab Awakening. Its findings are based on an innovative combination of datasets and rigorous economic analysis. Results suggest that poverty and income inequality in the Arab world are likely higher than official numbers have long suggested. Given that poverty indicators seem to be misleading for many countries in the region, the report introduces a new welfare measure reflecting food insecurity risks at both national and household levels to classify Arab countries into five risk groups. Regression analyses further show that, unlike in the rest of the world, manufacturing- and service sectorled growth, rather than agriculture-led growth, is most pro-poor in Arab countries. In addition, high levels of public spending in the Arab world do not do as much to stimulate growth as in other world regions, particularly in the case of education. Three key policy recommendations emerge from this report: (1) improve data and capacity as the basis for evidence-based decisionmaking, (2) foster growth that enhances food security at national and household levels, and (3) significantly enhance the efficiency and retool the allocation of public spending. More generally, the report argues that the region urgently needs national dialogues about societies' joint vision and economic development strategies. Successful design and implementation of these strategies will require visionary leadership, sound laws and institutions, politicians who are accountable and listen to the voices of the people, and civil society that is patient and accepts the tenets of democracy. The Arab world is awakeit is time to move forward.

Policies and Investments for Poverty Reduction and Food Security

Beyond the Arab Awakening

Mason-D’Croz, Daniel

Robertson, Richard D.

Wiebelt, Manfred

Ringler, Claudia

Andersen, Lykke E.

Jemio, Luis Carlos

Verner, Dorte

This food policy report is a response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. It assesses both local and global effects of changing agricultural yields on the economy, subnational regions, and different household types, including male- and female-headed households in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. The three countries reflect economic and geographic diversity in Latin America and more than half of the region’s population. Climate change impacts tend to be relatively small at an economywide level in all three countries. However, sectoral and household-level economic impacts tend to be diverse across countries and subnational levels. They mainly depend on projected changes in agricultural yields, the share of agriculture in regional gross domestic product (GDP), crop-specific international trade balances, net food buyer/seller position, and income diversification of households. As for gender, results from this study suggest that female-headed households may be less vulnerable than male-headed households to the effects of climate change, highlighting the importance of considering women as a source for solutions for building resilience to climate change. Given the relatively small impacts of climate change and the degree of uncertainty associated with them, it is too early to define specific policy recommendations. All three countries should try to maximize the benefits that may come with higher agricultural world market prices and to minimize the losses from reductions in agricultural yields.

Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru

Climate change Impacts and Household Resilience

ElDidi, Hagar

Karachiwalla, Naureen

Kassim, Yumna

Gillian, Daniel

El Enbaby, Hoda

Kurdi, Sikandra

Jilani, Amir

Thai, Giang

Goessinger, Karim-Yassin

Moataz, Yasmine

Petesch, Patti

Since March 2015, the Government of Egypt has been providing cash to poor households through the Takaful and Karama program. The program is run by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS). Takaful supports poor families with children under 18 years of age, while Karama supports the poor elderly and disabled. For Takaful, the amount of cash that households receive depends on the number of children and their school level, while the Karama transfer is a set rate per individual. In 2018, Takaful will also begin requiring households in the program to make sure their children attend school and participate in health screenings. The program was evaluated by IFPRI, an international research organization, using both quantitative statistical methods (simple questions asked to many households during a survey) and qualitative methods (more in-depth questions asked to fewer households in longer interviews). The main goal of this evaluation was to measure and explain how the transfers affected the welfare of households in the program. In addition, the evaluation describes how well the program selection criteria work for identifying poor households.

Impact evaluation study for Egypt's Takaful and Karama cash transfer program: Synthesis report- Summary of key findings form the quantitative and qualitative impact evaluation studies

Gilligan, Daniel

El-Enbaby, Hoda

Jilani, Amir Hamza

Egypt has been providing cash to poor households through its first conditional cash transfer program, Takaful and Karama, a social protection program run by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS), since March 2015. Takaful (“Solidarity”) supports poor families with children under 18, while Karama (“Dignity”) supports the elderly poor and people living with disabilities. The cash transfer program has enrolled 2.25 million families across all of Egypt’s governorates. The amount of the Takaful cash transfer provided to households depends on the number of children and their school level. The Karama program provides a set amount per individual. In order to reach the poorest households, participants are selected using a proxy means test. In the Takaful program, 89 percent of recipients are women, while only 11 percent are men. Beginning in 2018, Takaful will also begin implementing conditionalities, requiring households in the program to ensure their children attend school and participate in health screenings, added to antenatal care for pregnant women and post-natal care. The Takaful and Karama program was evaluated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) using both quantitative statistical methods (simple questions asked to many households during a survey) and qualitative methods (more in-depth questions asked to fewer households in longer interviews). The evaluation was designed to measure and explain the impacts of the cash transfers on household welfare, and to examine whether the program’s criteria for household selection were effective in identifying poor households. This brief, which focuses on the Takaful component of the program, summarizes the main findings from the evaluation and key recommendations.

Egypt’s Takaful and Karama cash transfer program: Evaluation of program impacts and recommendations

This report of the evaluation study provides a greater focus on measuring the impact of the larger Takaful program and also attempts to measure the impact of the much smaller Karama program. In addition, IFPRI will conduct a qualitative assessment of the Takaful and Karama program focused on learning about the experience with the program among the poorest beneficiary households. This qualitative assessment will also draw lessons from the quantitative survey to provide another report on the experience of very poor households. The remainder of this report is organized as follows Chapter 2 provides an overview of the Takaful and Karama Program. Chapter 3 summarizes the impact evaluation design. Chapter 4 describes the evaluation survey and sample. Chapter 5 provides context for the program by using the survey data to summarize the characteristics of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households and describe beneficiaries’ experience with program implementation. Chapter 6 presents the impact estimates for Takaful and Chapter 7 the estimates for Karama. Chapter 8 uses data from a separate representative sample of households collected during the survey to assess the targeting performance of the program. Chapter 9 concludes and discusses implications for social policy in Egypt.

Impact evaluation study for Egypt's Takaful and Karama cash transfer program: Part 1: Quantitative report

Collins, Julia

Cenacchi, Nicola

Rosegrant, Mark W.

Joshi, Pramod Kumar

Hoddinott, John F.

Kishore, Avinash

Makombe, Tsitsi

Torero, Maximo

Stads, Gert-Jan

Koo, Jawoo

Robertson, Richard

Fan, Shenggen

Polman, Paul

Fisher, Myles

Cox, Cindy

Perez, Nicostrato

Garrett, Karen

Beintema, Nienke

Gillespie, Stuart

Badiane, Ousmane

Saade, Maurice

Akramov, Kamiljon

Cohen-Cline, Noah

Chen, Kevin

Timmer, Peter

Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio

This 2013 Global Food Policy Report is the third in an annual series that provides an in-depth look at major food policy developments and events. Initiated in response to resurgent interest in food and nutrition security, the series offers a yearly overview of the food policy developments that have contributed to or hindered progress in achieving food and nutrition security. It reviews what happened in food policy and why, examines key challenges and opportunities, shares new evidence and knowledge, and highlights emerging issues.

2013 Global Food Policy Report

El-Batrawy, Rawia

Nutrition and economic development: Exploring Egypt's exceptionalism and the role of food subsidies [in Chinese]

Raouf, Mariam

Randriamamonjy, Josée

Engelke, Wilfried

Kebsi, Tarek Al

Tandon, Sharad A.

A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a representation of an economy that shows the circular flow of all transfers and real transactions between sectors and institutions. The SAM, which is a square matrix, describes the flows of incomes from activities, taking the form of factor remunerations, that are consequently received by the households for consumption on goods and services. The accounts in the SAM are the production activities, commodities, institutions, and factors of production. According to data availability, the production activities can be further disaggregated to include more detailed information on sub-sectoral or regional production. Similarly, the factors of production could be differentiated by the level of skills or the location of employment. Households can be disaggregated by income quintiles or by rural and urban residence.

Regionalized Social Accounting Matrix for Yemen: A 2014 Nexus project SAM

Breisinger, Clemens

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