Christopher L. Delgado

The seemingly inexhaustible oceans have proved to be finite after all. Capture of wild fish have leveled off since the mid-1980s, and many stocks of fish are fished so heavily that their future is threatened. And yet the world's appetite for fish has continued to increase, particularly as urban populations and incomes grow in developing countries. Aquaculture--fish farming--has arrived to meet this increased demand. Production of fish from aquaculture has exploded in the past 20 years and continues to expand around the world. But will aquaculture be sufficient to provide affordable fish to the world over the next 20 years? And what environmental and poverty problems will aquaculture face as it expands? Using a state-of-the-art computer model of global supply and demand for food and feed commodities, this book projects the likely changes in the fisheries sector over the next two decades. As prices for most food commodities fall, fish prices are expected to rise, reflecting demand for fish that outpaces the ability of the world to supply it. The model shows that developing countries will consume and produce a much greater share of the world's fish in the future, and trade in fisheries commodities will also increase. The authors show the causes and implications of these and other changes, and argue for specific actions and policies that can improve outcomes for the poor and for the environment.

Supply and Demand in Changing Global Markets

Fish to 2020

How much extra net income growth can be had in rural areas of Africa by increasing the spending power of local households? The answer depends on how rural households spend increments to income, whether the items desired can be imported to the local area in response to increased demand, and, if not, whether increased demand will lead to new local production or simply to price rises. For every dollar in new farm income earned, at least one additional-tional dollar could be realized from growth multipliers, according to Agricultural Growth Linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa, Research Report 107, by Christopher L. Delgado, Jane Hopkins, and Valerie A. Kelly, with Peter Hazell, Anna A. McKenna, Peter Gruhn, Behjat Hojjati, Jayashree Sil, and Claude Courbois.

Agricultural Growth Linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa

Clare A. Narrod

Marites M. Tiongco

Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo Barros

The rapid growth in consumer demand for livestock offers an opportunity to reduce poverty among smallholder livestock farmers in the developing world. These farmers' opportunity may be threatened, however, by competition from larger-scale farms. This report assesses the potential threat, examining various forms of livestock production in Brazil, India, the Philippines, and Thailand. Findings show that the competitiveness of smallholder farms depends on the opportunity cost of family labor and farmers' ability to overcome barriers to the acquisition of production- and market-related information and assets. Pro-poor livestock development depends, therefore, on the strengthening of institutions that will help smallholders overcome the disproportionately high transaction costs in securing quality inputs and obtaining market recognition for quality outputs. These and other findings make this report a useful guide for researchers and others concerned with the opportunities and risks of smallholder livestock farming.

Determinants and Implications of the Growing Scale of Livestock Farms in Four Fast-growing Developing Countries

Rosegrant, Mark W.

Steinfeld, Henning

Ehui, Simeon K.

Courbois, Claude

The livestock revolution; Recent transformation of livestock food demand; Accompanying transformation of livestock supply; Projections of future demand and supply to 2020; Implications of the livestock revolution for world trade and food prices; Nutrition, food security, and poverty alleviation; Environmental sustainability; Public health; Technology needs and prospects; Taking stock and moving forward.

Christopher L. Delgado

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