S. Rebecca Zimmerman

Ben Connable

Aaron Frank

Benjamin J. Fernandes

Michael J. McNerney

Marek N. Posard

Natasha Lander

Jasen J. Castillo

Dan Madden

Christopher Paul

Ilana Blum

In Hyo Seol

Andrew Parasiliti

"What drives some governments to persevere in war at any price while others choose to stop fighting? It is often less-tangible political and economic variables, rather than raw military power, that ultimately determine national will to fight. In this analysis, the authors explore how these variables strengthen or weaken a government's determination to conduct sustained military operations, even when the expectation of success decreases or the need for significant political, economic, and military sacrifices increases. This report is part of a broader RAND Arroyo Center effort to help U.S. leaders better understand and influence will to fight at both the national level and the tactical and operational levels. It presents findings and recommendations based on a wide-ranging literature review, a series of interviews, 15 case studies (including deep dives into conflicts involving the Korean Peninsula and Russia), and reviews of relevant modeling and war-gaming. The authors propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that can be tailored and applied to a wide set of conflict scenarios and drive a much-needed dialogue among analysts conducting threat assessments, contingency plans, war games, and other efforts that require an evaluation of how future conflicts might unfold. The recommendations should provide insights into how leaders can influence will to fight in both allies and adversaries."--Publisher's description.

Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't

National Will to Fight

Miriam Matthews (Behavioral scientist)

"Since its 2008 incursion into Georgia (if not before), there has been a remarkable evolution in Russia's approach to propaganda. The country has effectively employed new dissemination channels and messages in support of its 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula, its ongoing involvement in the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, and its antagonism of NATO allies. The Russian propaganda model is high-volume and multichannel, and it disseminates messages without regard for the truth. It is also rapid, continuous, and repetitive, and it lacks commitment to consistency. Although these techniques would seem to run counter to the received wisdom for successful information campaigns, research in psychology supports many of the most successful aspects of the model. Furthermore, the very factors that make the firehose of falsehood effective also make it difficult to counter. Traditional counterpropaganda approaches will likely be inadequate in this context. More effective solutions can be found in the same psychology literature that explains the surprising success of the Russian propaganda model and its messages"--Publisher's description.

Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It

The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model

Todd C. Helmus

Russell W. Glenn

Virtually every action, message, and decision of a military force shapes the opinions of an indigenous population: strategic communication, treatment of civilians at vehicle checkpoints, and the accuracy or inaccuracy of aerial bombardment. Themes of U.S. goodwill mean little if its actions convey otherwise. Consequently, a unified message in both word and deed is fundamental to success. Business marketing practices provide a useful framework for improving U.S. military efforts to shape the attitudes and behaviors of local populations in a theater of operations as well as those of a broader, international audience. Enlisting Madison Avenue extracts lessons from these business practices and adapts them to U.S. military efforts, developing a unique approach to shaping that has the potential to improve military-civilian relations, the accuracy of media coverage of operations, communication of U.S. and coalition objectives, and the reputation of U.S. forces in theater and internationally. Foremost among these lessons are the concepts of branding, customer satisfaction, and segmentation of the target audience, all of which serve to maximize the impact and improve the outcome of U.S. shaping efforts.

The Marketing Approach to Earning Popular Support in Theaters of Operation

Enlisting Madison Avenue

Rafeeq Ur Rehman

Two leading Linux developers show how to choose the best tools for your specific needs and integrate them into a complete development environment that maximizes your effectiveness in any project, no matter how large or complex. Includes research, requirements, coding, debugging, deployment, maintenance and beyond, choosing and implementing editors, compilers, assemblers, debuggers, version control systems, utilities, using Linux Standard Base to deliver applications that run reliably on a wide range of Linux systems, comparing Java development options for Linux platforms, using Linux in cross-platform and embedded development environments.

Configuring, Using, and Maintaining a Complete Programming Environment

The Linux Development Platform

Colin P. Clarke

Chad C. Serena

Despite the scope of the threat they pose to Mexico’s security, violent drug-trafficking organizations are not well understood, and optimal strategies to combat them have not been identified. While there is no perfectly analogous case to Mexico’s current security situation, historical case studies may offer lessons for policymakers as they cope with challenges related to violence and corruption in that country.

Alternative Historical Analogies for Responding to the Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations, Supporting Case Studies

Mexico Is Not Colombia

Beth Grill

An examination of approaches to counterinsurgency from 30 recent resolved campaigns reveals that good COIN practices tend to "run in packs" and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict.

Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency

Victory Has a Thousand Fathers

Molly Dunigan

This companion volume to Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies offers in-depth case studies of 41 insurgencies since World War II. Each case breaks the conflict into phases and examines the trajectory that led to the outcome.

Detailed Insurgency Case Studies

Paths to Victory

Michael York

Jerry M. Sollinger

Isaac Porche

"In the U.S. Army as elsewhere, transmission of digitized packets on Internet-protocol and space-based networks is rapidly supplanting the use of old technology (e.g., dedicated analog channels) when it comes to information sharing and media broadcasting. As the Army moves forward with these changes, it will be important to identify the implications and potential boundaries of cyberspace operations. An examination of network operations, information operations, and the more focused areas of electronic warfare, signals intelligence, electromagnetic spectrum operations, public affairs, and psychological operations in the U.S. military found significant overlap that could inform the development of future Army doctrine in these areas. In clarifying the prevailing boundaries between these areas of interest, it is possible to predict the progression of these boundaries in the near future. The investigation also entailed developing new definitions that better capture this overlap for such concepts as information warfare. This is important because the Army is now studying ways to apply its cyber power and is reconsidering doctrinally defined areas that are integral to operations in cyberspace. It will also be critical for the Army to approach information operations with a plan to organize and, if possible, consolidate its operations in two realms: the psychological, which is focused on message content and people, and the technological, which is focused on content delivery and machines."--Page 4 of cover.

Redefining Information Warfare Boundaries for an Army in a Wireless World

This volume in the Contemporary Military, Strategic, and Security Issues series presents a concise introduction to the evolution, key concepts, discourse, and future options for improved strategic communication in today's U.S. government. * Key document excerpts from legislation, proposed legislation, doctrine, reform proposals, and policy documents * A glossary of terms * An annotated bibliography of proposals and recommendations for strategic communication/public diplomacy reform

Origins, Concepts, and Current Debates

Strategic Communication

Christopher Paul

Books

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