Dalia Dassa Kaye

A timely and rigorous analysis of a half-century of American policymakers' shifting perceptions of Iran, and how they have driven US-Iran relations. US–Iran hostility has endured for longer than the Cold War. Momentous geopolitical shifts, changing leaderships, and evolving domestic priorities have not fundamentally altered this antagonistic relationship. Standard explanations pin the blame for this enduring hostility on Iran and its leaders' revolutionary ideology and policies at odds with the United States and the West. While Iran bears significant blame for a deeply adversarial relationship—the country often engages in dangerous and repressive activities—this book demonstrates that "it's them, not us" accounts cannot alone explain America's posture toward this complicated but critically important country. Drawing on original interviews with former government officials, oral histories, memoirs, congressional hearings, archival material, and the author's own participation in dozens of Iran-related track two meetings, Dalia Dassa Kaye deftly explores how America's Iran policy is made, the people who make it, and the underlying ideas and perceptions that inform it. Dassa Kaye looks back at US policy toward Iran over the past four decades to help us look ahead, offering wider lessons for understanding American foreign policymaking and providing critical insights at a pivotal time of heightened military tensions in and around the Middle East.

The Making of America's Iran Policy

Enduring Hostility

Linda Robinson

Jeffrey Martini

Ashley L. Rhoades

Nathan Vest

"U.S. policy toward the Middle East has relied heavily on military instruments of power and has focused on regional threats--particularly the Iranian threat--with the goal of keeping partners on "our side." These long-standing policies have largely fallen short of meeting core U.S. interests and adapting to new regional realities and strategic imperatives. RAND researchers offer an alternative framework, suggesting that the U.S. strategic priority must center on reducing regional conflict and the drivers of conflict. This revised strategic approach puts a greater focus on addressing conflict and socioeconomic challenges that are creating unsustainable pressures on the region's states and immense suffering among its people. Researchers analyze how the tools of U.S. policy--political, security, economic, diplomatic, and informational instruments--would need to adjust to more effectively address such challenges in ways that are mindful of limited resources at home. Researchers also examine how the United States deals with both partners and adversaries in and outside the region and consider how to better leverage policies to the benefit of U.S. interests and the region. The researchers recommend specific actions organized into the following three pillars: (1) shifting resources from the current heavy reliance on military tools to a more balanced approach that prioritizes economic investments, governance, diplomacy, and programs focused on people; (2) favoring a long-term time horizon to reduce regional conflict and support growth and development, even at the cost of short-term risks; and (3) working multilaterally with global and regional partners to address key challenges." -- from the publisher.

Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments

Reimagining U.S. Strategy in the Middle East

Alireza Nader

Parisa Roshan

Israel and Iran have come to view each other as direct regional rivals. The two countries are not natural rivals; they have shared geopolitical interests, which led to years of cooperation both before and after the 1979 Islamic revolution. But their rivalry has intensified recently, particularly with the rise of fundamentalist leaders in Iran and the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran posing grave strategic and ideological challenges to Israel.

A Dangerous Rivalry

Israel and Iran

This monograph examines security-related track two diplomacy efforts in the Middle East and South Asia, including how such efforts have socialized participants into thinking about security in more cooperative terms, and whether the ideas generated in track two forums have been acknowledged at the societal level or influenced official policy. Kaye concludes with suggestions on how to improve future track two efforts.

Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia

Talking to the Enemy

Daniel Egel

Becca Wasser

Cordaye Ogletree

This report examines what binds and divides the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—and presents the outlook for the GCC’s evolution over the next ten years. The study aims to help policymakers better understand intra-GCC dynamics and prepare for future trends in a region with high stakes for U.S. strategic interests.

The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation

Jessica Watkins

Frederic Wehrey

Robert A. Guffey

Regardless of its outcome, the Iraq War has had a transformative effect on the Middle East. To equip U.S. policymakers to better manage the war's long-term consequences, the authors analyzed its effects on the regional balance of power, local perceptions of U.S. credibility, the domestic stability of neighboring states, and trends in terrorism after conducting extensive interviews in the region and drawing from an array of local media sources.

The Middle East After the Iraq War

The Iraq Effect

Jennifer D. P. Moroney

David E. Thaler

Theodore W. Karasik

The authors describe possible regional security structures and bilateral U.S. relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan. They recommend that the United States offer a wide range of security cooperation activities to compatible future governments in Kabul and Baghdad but should also plan to hedge against less-favorable contingencies. They emphasize that the U.S. Air Force should expect to remain heavily tasked for the foreseeable future.

U.S. Air Force Roles

Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan

Olga Oliker

Audra K. Grant

As the United States continues to draw down its forces and prepares to end its military involvement in Iraq, the implications for Iraq's at-risk populations must be considered. Oliker, Grant, and Kaye assess the risks and implications of drawdown and withdrawal for some of the Iraqis in greatest danger, both within Iraq and in neighboring states. The authors conclude with recommendations on how the United States can mitigate identified problems.

Analysis and Recommendations

The Impact of U.S. Military Drawdown in Iraq on Displaced and Other Vulnerable Populations

Erin York

Since the 2011 revolution in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as a key political player. Although individuals under the age of 35 make up a large share of the membership, the group's strict hierarchy has led to disaffection among its youth. These members merit attention not only as a challenge to the Brotherhood's organizational cohesion, but as a potential conduit for expanding U.S. engagement with the group.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

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