David F. Ronfeldt

John Arquilla

Graham Fuller

Melissa Fuller

The information revolution is leading to the rise of network forms of organization in which small, previously isolated groups can communicate, link up, and conduct coordinated joint actions as never before. This in turn is leading to a new mode of conflict--netwar--in which the protagonists depend on using network forms of organization, doctrine, strategy, and technology. Many actors across the spectrum of conflict--from terrorists, guerrillas, and criminals who pose security threats, to social activists who may not--are developing netwar designs and capabilities. The Zapatista movement in Mexico is a seminal case of this. In January 1994, a guerrilla-like insurgency in Chiapas by the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN), and the Mexican government's response to it, aroused a multitude of civil-society activists associated with human-rights, indigenous-rights, and other types of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to swarm--electronically as well as physically--from the United States, Canada, and elsewhere into Mexico City and Chiapas. There, they linked with Mexican NGOs to voice solidarity with the EZLN's demands and to press for nonviolent change. Thus, what began as a violent insurgency in an isolated region mutated into a nonviolent though no less disruptive social netwar that engaged the attention of activists from far and wide and had nationwide and foreign repercussions for Mexico. This study examines the rise of this social netwar, the information-age behaviors that characterize it (e.g., extensive use of the Internet), its effects on the Mexican military, its implications for Mexico's stability, and its implications for the future occurrence of social netwars elsewhere around the world.

The Zapatista "social Netwar" in Mexico

The Mindsets of Ligh-technology Terrorists: Future Implications from an Hist. Analog

"This study considers the effect of the Mexican military on Mexico's domestic and foreign policies, its ability to assure Mexico's stability and security, and its likely behavior in a serious political or foreign policy crisis. It reviews the Mexican military's modernization program and institutional transformations within the Mexican government as factors affecting Mexican national stability and security. It argues that the military is becoming a more visible, respected, and modernized partner of Mexico's ruling institutions, and that a close civil-military partnership may result, in which the military, with civilian agreement, plays expanded roles in determining how to resolve the new agenda of domestic and foreign security issues confronting Mexico."--Rand abstracts.

Implications for Mexico's Stability and Security

The Modern Mexican Military

This essay introduces and defines the concept of the hubris-nemesis complex, illustsrates it by drawing upon both mythic characters and real personalities.

A Concept for Leadership Analysis

Beware the Hubris-nemesis Complex

United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense

Essays about conflict in the information age that show how the information revolution is altering the nature of conflict.

Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age

In Athena's Camp

Rand Corporation

Three Dark Pieces

Michele Zanini

Ian Lesser

Bruce Hoffman

Traces the recent evolution of international terrorism against civilian and U.S. military targets, looks ahead to where terrorism is going, and assesses how it might be contained. The authors consider the threat of information-based terrorism and of weapons of mass destruction, with an emphasis on how changes in the sources and nature of terrorism may affect the use of unconventional terror. The authors propose counterterrorism strategies that address the growing problem of homeland defense.

David F. Ronfeldt

Books

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