David G. Blanchflower

A candid assessment of why the job market is not as healthy as we think Don't trust low unemployment numbers as proof that the labor market is doing fine—it isn't. Not Working is about those who can’t find full-time work at a decent wage—the underemployed—and how their plight is contributing to widespread despair, a worsening drug epidemic, and the unchecked rise of right-wing populism. In this revelatory and outspoken book, David Blanchflower draws on his acclaimed work in the economics of labor and well-being to explain why today's postrecession economy is vastly different from what came before. He calls out our leaders and policymakers for failing to see the Great Recession coming, and for their continued failure to address one of the most unacknowledged social catastrophes of our time. Blanchflower shows how many workers are underemployed or have simply given up trying to find a well-paying job, how wage growth has not returned to prerecession levels despite rosy employment indicators, and how general prosperity has not returned since the crash of 2008. Standard economic measures are often blind to these forgotten workers, which is why Blanchflower practices the "economics of walking about"—seeing for himself how ordinary people are faring under the recovery, and taking seriously what they say and do. Not Working is his candid report on how the young and the less skilled are among the worst casualties of underemployment, how immigrants are taking the blame, and how the epidemic of unhappiness and self-destruction will continue to spread unless we deal with it.

Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone?

Not Working

Chris Shadforth

UK population growth over the past thirty-five years has been remarkably low in comparison with other countries; the population grew by just 7% between 1971 and 2004, less than all the other EU15 countries. The UK population has grown at a faster pace since the turn of the millennium. Both the inflow and outflow rates have risen, but the inflow rate has risen more rapidly recently, with an influx of workers from Eastern European. The propensity to come to the UK to work is higher the lower is a) GDP per capita b) life satisfaction in each of the East European countries. There is reason to believe that the majority of those who have arrived in the UK from Eastern Europe have not come permanently. When surveyed only 9% said they expected to stay for more than two years. Hence, in our view it is inappropriate to call them migrants, whereas in fact they should more appropriately be considered temporary or guest workers. There is evidence that, as a result of this increase in the flow of workers from Eastern Europe, the fear of unemployment has risen in the UK which appears to have contained wage pressures. We argue that the influx of workers from Eastern Europe has tended to increase supply by more than it has increased demand in the UK (in the short run). We argue that this has acted to reduce inflationary pressures and reduce the natural rate of unemployment.

Fear, Unemployment and Migration

Matthew Jon Slaughter

W(h)ither the Debate?

The Causes and Consequences of Changing Income Inequality

Simon M. Burgess

Job Creation and Job Destruction in Britain, 1980-90

Andrew J. Oswald

The Wage Curve casts doubt on some of the most important ideas in macroeconomics, labor economics, and regional economics. According to macroeconomic orthodoxy, there is a relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of wages. According to orthodoxy in labor economics and regional economics, an area's wage is positively related to the amount of joblessness in the area. The Wage Curve suggests that both these beliefs are incorrect. Blanchflower and Oswald argue that the stable relationship is a downward-sloping convex curve linking local unemployment and the level of pay. Their study, which is one of the most intensive in the history of social science, is based on random samples that provide computerized information on nearly four million people from sixteen countries. Throughout, the authors systematically present evidence and possible explanations for their empirical "law" of economics.

The Wage Curve

David G. Blanchflower

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