David G. Tarr

Glenn W. Harrison

Thomas F. Rutherford

July 2001 - Among Chile's bilateral regional agreements, only Chile's agreements with "Northern" partners provide enough market access to offset the costs to Chile of trade diversion. Because of preferential market access, however, "additive regionalism" is likely to provide Chile with far more gains than the static welfare gains from unilateral free trade. At least one partner country loses from each of the regional trade agreements considered in this study, and excluded countries always lose. The Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) produces gains for almost all the member countries, but the European Union is a big loser. Countries of the Americas gain more in aggregate from global free trade than from the FTAA. Using a multisector, multicountry, computable general equilibrium model, Harrison, Rutherford, and Tarr examine Chile's strategy of negotiating bilateral free trade agreements with all of its significant trading partners (referring to this policy as additive regionalism). They also evaluate the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) and global free trade. Among Chile's bilateral regional agreements, only Chile's agreements with "Northern" partners provide enough market access to offset the costs to Chile of trade diversion. Because of preferential market access, however, additive regionalism is likely to provide Chile with many times as many gains as the static welfare gains from unilateral free trade. Harrison, Rutherford, and Tarr find that at least one partner country loses from each of the regional trade agreements they consider, and excluded countries as a group always lose. They estimate that the FTAA produces large welfare gains for the members, with the European Union being the big loser. Gains to the world from global free trade are estimated to be at least 36 times greater than gains from the FTAA. Even countries of the Americas in aggregate gain more from global free trade than from the FTAA. This paper--a product of Trade, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to examine the impact of regional trade arrangements on development and poverty reduction. David Tarr may be contacted at dtarr@worldbank.org.

The Importance of Market Access

Chile's Regional Arrangements and the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas

Jesper Jensen

In this paper the authors use a computable general equilibrium model of the Kazakhstan economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses (1) improved market access; (2) Kazakhstan tariff reduction; (3) reduction of barriers against entry by multinational service providers; and (4) reform of local content and value-added tax policies confronting multinational firms in the oil sector. They assume that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Kazakhstan business services providers, but cross-border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. The authors estimated the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment based on detailed questionnaires completed by specialized research institutes in Kazakhstan. They estimate that Kazakhstan will gain about 6.7 percent of the value of Kazakhstan consumption in the medium run from WTO accession and up to 17.5 percent in the long run. They estimate that the largest gains to Kazakhstan will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers, but the other three elements of WTO accession that the authors model all contribute positively to the estimated gains. Piecemeal sensitivity analysis shows that qualitatively the results are robust, but there are four parameters in the model that significantly affect the estimated magnitude of the gains from WTO accession.

A Quantitative Assessment

The Impact of Kazakhstan Accession to the World Trade Organization

Howard J. Shatz

"Lessons from world experience about the consequences of exchange rate overvaluation (the frequent cause of trade crises), the consequences of trying to defend an overvalued exchange rate, and the most appropriate policies for resolving an overvaluation"--Cover.

Lessons from Experience

Exchange Rate Overvaluation and Trade Protection

When Does Rent-Seeking Augment the Benefits of Price and Trade Reform on Rationed Commodities? Estimates for Automobiles and Color Televisions in Poland

Thomas Fox Rutherford

Examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally.

A Quantitative Evaluation

Trade Policy Options for Chile

When Trade Diversion is Unambiguously Beneficial

Regional Integration Under VERs

David G. Tarr

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