Joel E. Cohen

Eric Stallard

Kenneth G. Manton

This selection of papers encompasses recent methodological advances in several important areas, such as multivariate failure time data and interval censored data, as well as innovative applications of the existing theory and methods. Using a rigorous account of statistical forecasting efforts that led to the successful resolution of the John-Manville asbestos litigation, the models in this volume can be adapted to forecast industry-wide asbestos liability. More generally, because the models are not overly dependent on the U.S. legal system and the role of asbestos, this volume will be of interest in other product liability cases, as well as similar forecasting situations for a range of insurable or compensational events. Throughout the text, the emphasis is on the iterative nature of model building and the uncertainty generated by lack of complete knowledge of the injury process. This uncertainty is balanced against the court's need for a definitive settlement, and how these opposing principles can be reconciled. A valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the field of survival analysis.

Epidemiology and Modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case

Forecasting Product Liability Claims

Kenneth C. Land

Anatoliy I. Yashin

This volume is a critical exposition of the data and analyses from a full decade of rigorous research into how age-related changes at the individual level, along with other factors, contribute to morbidity, disability and mortality risks at the broader population level. After summarizing the state of our knowledge in the field, individual chapters offer enlightening discussion on a range of key topics such as age trajectory analysis in select and general populations, incidence/age patterns of major chronic illnesses, and indices of cumulative deficits and their use in characterizing and understanding the detailed properties of individual aging. The book features comprehensive statistical analyses of unique longitudinal data sets including the unique resource of the Framingham Heart Study, with its more than 60 years of follow-up. Culminating in penetrating conclusions about the insights gained from the work involved, this book adds much to our understanding of the links between aging and human health.

Eric Stallard

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