William R. Thompson

Leonid E. Grinin

Andrey V. Korotayev

Stephen I. Ternyik

Tessaleno C. Devezas

Brian J. L. Berry

Euel Elliott

Leo Nefiodow

Valentina M. Bondarenko

Zenonas Norkus

Sergey Yu. Malkov

Arno Tausсh

Marco Gallegati

Elżbieta Mączyńska

Anthony Harper

Though the researchers of the theory of long and medium-term cycles are certainly worried about the economic situation, they understand that the cyclicity still remains an inevitable attribute of economic development. And Juglar's aphorism that crisis is a consequence of the preceded prosperity is still true. In this third issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ with the subtitle ‘Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts’, we present a number of insight contributions on nature, egularities, and interconnections among cycles of different duration. Some economic cycles may result in a severe economic crisis. The current one shows once again the importance of the study of cyclical dynamics and its peculiarities. Between the 1980s and 1990s the Keynesian receipts were replaced by neoliberal and monetarist ones which seemed to be miraculous as well. The depleted growth was marked with the largest global crisis of 2008 which also showed that within globalization when regulation in the international arena is impossible yet, there recur the signs of Juglar cycles of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries with their uncontrollable upwards and sharp declines evolving into collapses and panic. This is supported by the fact that for eight years the world has been at the depressive phase. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization. This research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for the Humanities (Project No 16-02-14053 г).

Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts

KONDRATIEFF WAVES

Peter Herrmann

Arno Tausch

Willi Semmler

Philippe Jourdon 

Lucas Bernard

Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan

Tom Palley

Denis J. Dean

Jonas Van Vossole

 Simone Nefiodow

Anton L. Grinin 

Nikolai D. Kondratieff

Barry K. Gills

 Robert A. Denemark

In the period from the 1920s to 1930s the theory of economic cycles underwent dramatic changes. Due to the research of such famous economists as Nikolay Kondratieff, Joseph Kitchin, Wesley Mitchell, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter the idea of a whole system of economic cycles (with characteristic periods between two and sixty years) was developed. The idea of a system of intertwined economic cycles is nowadays paramount to the school of evolutionary economics and its development promises rather interesting future outcomes. That is why this issue of our ‘Kondratieff Waves’ Yearbook is devoted to the interconnections between various economic cycles. As to the subtitle of this volume, one should note that many of the contributors refer to the system of cycles and the fact that real economic cycles make up a system, whereas among different types of cycles, the Juglar, Kuznets, and Kondratieff cycles are the most important ones for the present-day economic dynamics. Although Kondratieff himself considered long waves as above all an economic phenomenon, the theory of the long waves became, however, very actively developed in connection with their political and geopolitical aspects. In this Yearbook, the political aspect of Kondratieff waves is the subject of several articles in the second section. The last section of this Yearbook is devoted to the heritage of Kondratieff and other prominent economists. The year 2015 marks the 150th anniversary of the outstanding Russian economist, one of the most prominent researchers of medium-term economic cycles, Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky, and the volume is concluded with Kondratieff's article about him. Concerning 2015, we should mention another anniversary, namely, 30 years since the death of Simon Kuznets (1901–1985). This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization.

Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff

Kondrarieff waves

Euel Elliott

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