France Meslé

Jacques Vallin

Tapani Valkonen

The average life expectancy for Europeans has increased from 45 years to 73 years during the last century. However, important differences in mortality risks are still present throughout Europe. For example, there is a higher mortality rate in Eastern Europe, and in some eastern European countries life expectancy is actually decreasing. This study examines mortality trends in the Council of Europe member states over the last 50 years including: life expectancy; the reduction in infant mortality; trends in main groups of deaths; and the health crisis in eastern and central Europe. It also considers the links between life expectancy and socio-economic indicators for 11 European countries.

Trends in Mortality and Differential Mortality

The Ukraine faced two very different kinds of health crises during the twentieth century. First, in the 1930s and 1940s, famine, war and political upheaval caused massive population losses. Previous evaluations of overall losses have given an idea of the scale of these catastrophes but do not distinguish between crisis mortality, birth shortfall and loss through emigration. Based on a painstaking work of reconstitution, this study is the first to provide a detailed estimation of the hecatomb in terms of number of deaths and life expectancy. The famine of 1933 was alone responsible for the deaths of 2.6 million Ukrainians and reduced male and female life expectancies to 7 and 11 years respectively. Once the crises of the 1930s and 1940s were over, the earlier trend in health resumed and mortality declined steadily until the 1960s. At this point, however, a new type of crisis appeared that caused a sustained reversal in the existing trends. Life expectancy for women stopped increasing altogether, while that for men began a relentless year on year regression. Notwithstanding the confusing picture created by the fluctuations of the 1980s and 1990s, the long-term trend is to further deterioration. To understand the factors involved, this study analyses in detail the combined effects of different causes of death at different ages.​

France Meslé

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