National Research Council

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Geographical Sciences Committee

Committee on Needs and Research Requirements for Land Change Modeling

People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

Opportunities and Research Requirements

Advancing Land Change Modeling

Committee on Support for Thinking Spatially: The Incorporation of Geographic Information Science Across the K-12 Curriculum

Spatial thinkingâ€"a constructive combination of concepts of space, tools of representation, and processes of reasoningâ€"uses space to structure problems, find answers, and express solutions. It is powerful and pervasive in science, the workplace, and everyday life. By visualizing relationships within spatial structures, we can perceive, remember, and analyze the static and dynamic properties of objects and the relationships between objects. Despite its crucial role underpinning the National Standards for Science and Mathematics, spatial thinking is currently not systematically incorporated into the K-12 curriculum. Learning to Think Spatially: GIS as a Support System in the K-12 Curriculum examines how spatial thinking might be incorporated into existing standards-based instruction across the school curriculum. Spatial thinking must be recognized as a fundamental part of K-12 education and as an integrator and a facilitator for problem solving across the curriculum. With advances in computing technologies and the increasing availability of geospatial data, spatial thinking will play a significant role in the information- based economy of the 21st-century. Using appropriately designed support systems tailored to the K-12 context, spatial thinking can be taught formally to all students. A geographic information system (GIS) offers one example of a high-technology support system that can enable students and teachers to practice and apply spatial thinking in many areas of the curriculum.

Geographical Sciences Committee

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