Kenneth Rogoff

Gita Gopinath

Elhanan Helpman

Peter B. Kenen

Ronald Winthrop Jones

G.M. Grossman

Paperback. Up-to-date surveys of all major research areas in international trade and international finance are presented in this volume. The chapters have a high standard of exposition, delivering ideas at the forefront of the field in a clear readable fashion. The volume has a good overall balance of theoretical and empirical coverage.The trade side of the volume surveys theoretical work on trade based on scale economics and imperfect competition, the relationship between trade and technological progress, strategic trade policy, the political economy of trade policy, and the rules and institutions of international trade, as well as empirical work on trade patterns, trade policies, and regional integration. The finance side covers topics such as exchange rates, purchasing power parity, the current account, the international transmission of business cycles, foreign ending, international capital markets, target zones and speculative attacks on fixed exc

Handbook of International Economics

Camila Casas

Mr.Federico Diez

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies

Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Ms.Emine Boz

We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.

Global Trade and the Dollar

Gita Gopinath

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