Joanna Lillis

James Nixey

Annette Bohr

Birgit Brauer

Nigel Gould-Davies

Nargis Kassenova

Kate Mallinson

Dosym Satpayev

A partial handover of political power through an orchestrated transition takes Kazakhstan into uncharted territory. Will it be able to pursue modernization and reform, and break from its authoritarian past? As Kazakhstan enters uncharted territory, the purpose of this report is twofold. First, to make the case for the West to devote more attention to Kazakhstan. The country’s relative importance in Central Asia, and as the constant focus of intense attention from China and Russia, suggests that the West is wrong to direct so little time and diplomatic effort and so few resources towards it. The second function of the report is to serve as a well-intentioned message to the leadership of Kazakhstan. The research undertaken by the report’s eight authors shows that Kazakhstan is at risk of failing to achieve the goals its leadership has set for the country.

Tested by Transition

Kazakhstan

Keir Giles

Andrew Wood

Roderic Lyne

James Sherr

The war in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin's bid to overturn the post-Cold War international settlement in Europe, have forced many Western governments to reappraise their approach to Russia. Until 2003, it was widely believed that a modernizing Russia might be accommodated into the international system as a constructive and benign actor. Variations on this view have given way to the realization that Russia, on its present course, cannot be a partner or ally, and that differences outweigh any common interests. Russia needs reform, but the domestic political obstacles to it are daunting. At the same time, if Moscow maintains its current course, in both economic management and international relations, this will be increasingly dangerous for Europe and costly, if not disastrous, for Russia. The questions addressed in this report are how far those costs will rise, whether Russia can bear them, what will happen if it cannot, and how the West should respond in the near and longer term.

The Russian Challenge

James Nixey

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