Orrin H. Pilkey

Linda Pilkey-Jarvis

Keith C. Pilkey

This big-picture, policy-oriented book explains in gripping terms what rising oceans will do to coastal cities and the drastic actions we need to take now to remove vulnerable populations. The authors detail effective approaches for addressing climate-change denialism and powerful arguments for changing U.S. federal coastal-management policies.

Hard Decisions in an Age of Climate Change

Retreat from a Rising Sea

Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Orrin Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada, and then they discuss the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects. Case studies depict how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.

Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future

Useless Arithmetic

This sobering examination of climate-change and the disastrous effects of rising sea levels explains what must be done to avoid the worst outcomes. By the end of this century, hundreds of millions of people living at low elevations along coasts will be forced to retreat to higher and safer ground. Because of sea-level rise, major storms will inundate areas farther inland and will lay waste to critical infrastructure, such as water-treatment and energy facilities, creating vast, irreversible pollution by decimating landfills and toxic-waste sites. Retreat from a Rising Sea explains in gripping terms what rising oceans will do to coastal cities—detailing the specific threats faced by Miami, New Orleans, New York, and Amsterdam. This policy-oriented book then lays out the drastic actions we must take now to remove vulnerable populations. Aware of the overwhelming social, political, and economic challenges that would accompany effective action, the authors consider the burden to the taxpayer and the logistics of moving landmarks and infrastructure, including toxic-waste sites. They also show readers the alternative: thousands of environmental refugees, with no legitimate means to regain what they have lost. The authors conclude with effective approaches for addressing climate-change denialism and powerful arguments for reforming U.S. federal coastal management policies.

Linda Pilkey-Jarvis

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