Michael Blastland

Why does one smoker die of lung cancer but another live to 100? The answer is 'The Hidden Half' - those random, unknowable variables that mess up our attempts to comprehend the world. We humans are very clever creatures - but we're idiots about how clever we really are. In this entertaining and ingenious book, Blastland reveals how in our quest to make the world more understandable, we lose sight of how unexplainable it often is. The result - from GDP figures to medicine - is that experts know a lot less than they think. Filled with compelling stories from economics, genetics, business, and science, The Hidden Half is a warning that an explanation which works in one arena may not work in another. Entertaining and provocative, it will change how you view the world.

How the World Conceals its Secrets

The Hidden Half

David Spiegelhalter

Exploring the mortality statistics for risky activities in the real world, a journalist and risk expert answer questions about the dangers we encounter in our daily lives through stories of the average Norm and an ingenious measurement called the MicroMort. Original. 35,000 first printing.

Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death

The Norm Chronicles

Andrew Dilnot

Mathematics scares and depresses most of us, but politicians, journalists and everyone in power use numbers all the time to bamboozle us. Most maths is really simple - as easy as 2+2 in fact. Better still it can be understood without any jargon, any formulas - and in fact not even many numbers. Most of it is commonsense, and by using a few really simple principles one can quickly see when maths, statistics and numbers are being abused to play tricks - or create policies - which can waste millions of pounds. It is liberating to understand when numbers are telling the truth or being used to lie, whether it is health scares, the costs of government policies, the supposed risks of certain activities or the real burden of taxes.

Seeing Through a World of Numbers

The Tiger That Isn't

"Numbers have become the all-powerful language of public argument. Too often, that power is abused and the numbers bamboozle. This book shows how to see straight through them -- and how to seize the power for yourself."--p. 2 of cover.

seeing through a world of numbers

The tiger that isn't

Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike?Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. What we do, or don't do, has as much do with gut instinct as hard facts, with enjoyment as understanding. If you've ever wondered what the statistics in tabloid scare stories really mean, how dangerous horse-riding is compared to class-A drugs, or what governs coincidence, you will find it all here.From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.

Risk and Uncertainty

How the World Conceals Its Secrets

Hidden Half

Tiger That Isn't

Un paseo por la jungla de la estadística

El tigre que no está

A. W. Dilnot

Numbers saturate the news, politics, and life. The average person can use basic knowledge and common sense to put the never-ending onslaught of facts and figures in their proper place.

The Commonsense Guide to Understanding Numbers in the News, in Politics, and in Life

The Numbers Game

A father's attempt to understand his son's autism offers insights into a bizarre and mysterious world of mental isolation.

A Father Explores the Mysteries of Autism

The Only Boy in the World

An exceptionally haunting memoir that also shows us what it is to be really human. In a hardware store, Joe sits on a display toilet amidst the throng of customers and wees, smiling serenely. He thumps crying babies. He is amazed when the car he runs in front of actually hits him. Joe is ten and mentally disabled. He's funny, fascinating and maddening, and this memoir tells his moving story, but also argues that until we know Joe's life, we can't understand our own. Through philosophy, psychology and medical research, the author explains how we are mind-readers, how we make sense of other people and how we understand guilt and innocence, and shows that Joe sets our humanity in sharp relief. But in that case, is Joe part of it? The author who asks that outrageous question is Joe's father.

A statistician and a journalist reveal the real story behind the statistics on risk, chance, and choice

Wer sich zu starker Sonnenstrahlung aussetzt, erhöht das Hautkrebsrisiko. Wer sich aber zu gewissenhaft vor UV-Strahlen schützt, leidet bald unter Vitamin-D-Mangel und dessen Folgeerkrankungen. Unsere Persönlichkeit, individuelle Disposition und unser Verhalten hat viel größeren Einfluss auf unser jeweiliges Lebensrisiko, als Statistiken es erfassen können. Doch genau diesen "menschlichen Faktor" beziehen Michael Blastland und David Spiegelhalter in ihre Analyse der Gefahren, die das ganze Leben über auf uns Menschen lauern, ein. Sie erzählen mithilfe anschaulicher Geschichten über die verschiedenen Seiten der Gefahr und ermutigen den Leser lieber sich selbst als Statistiken zu vertrauen.

Michael Blastland

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