Mr.Tamon Asonuma

Mr.Alfredo Cuevas

Ms.Genevieve Verdier

Mr.Xavier Debrun

Mr.Lamin Y Leigh

Mr.Joannes Mongardini

Olivier Basdevant

Lars Holger Engstrom

Imelda M. Flores Vazquez

Mr.Vitaliy Kramarenko

Mr.Paul R Masson

The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is the oldest customs union in the world, with significant opportunities ahead for creating higher economic growth and increased welfare benefits to the people of the region, by fulfilling its vision to become an economic community with a common market and monetary union. This volume describes policy options to address the barriers to equitable and sustainable development in the region and outlines a plan for deeper regional integration.

Building a Common Future in Southern Africa

Secil Topak

When faced with a relative price shock, monetary authorities often aim to contain its second round effects on inflation while accepting first round effects. We analyze the experience of South Africa and other inflation targeters to explore whether and when this policy prescription implies changing the monetary policy stance. Inflation targeting central banks differ on how aggressively they typically react to relative price shocks, reflecting differences in resilience of underlying inflation to such shocks. An examination of individual policy decisions reveals the importance of the broader economic context in framing the responses to relative price shocks.

Monetary Policy and Relative Price Shocks in South Africa and Other Inflation Targeters

Charl Jooste

Ian C. Stuart

Philippe Burger

How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating the question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (OLS, VAR, TAR, GMM, State-Space modelling and VECM). The paper finds that since 1946 the South African government has ran a sustainable fiscal policy, by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, the paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/GDP ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.

Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa

Mr.Alfredo Cuevas

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