Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

Mr.Pietro Garibaldi

This paper presents theory and evidence on the dynamic relationship between aggregate bank lending and interest rate changes. Theoretically, it proposes and solves a stochastic matching model where credit expansion and contraction are time consuming. It shows that the response of bank lending to changes in money market rates is likely to be asymmetric and depends crucially on two structural parameters: the speed at which new loans become available, and the speed at which banks recall existing loans. Empirically, it provides evidence that bank lending in Mexico and the United States responds asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks in money market rates.

Bank Lending and Interest Rate Changes in a Dynamic Matching Model

Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Alexander F. Tieman

Ms.Deniz O Igan

Mr.Paolo Mauro

Hala Moussawi

We track direct public interventions and public holdings in 1,114 financial institutions over the period 2007–17 in 37 countries based on publicly available information. We use aggregate official data to validate this new dataset and estimate the fiscal impact of interventions, including the value of asset holdings remaining in state hands at end-2017. Direct public support to financial institutions amounted to $1.6 trillion ($3.5 trillion including guarantees), with larger amounts allocated to lower capitalized and less profitable banks. As of end-2017, only a few countries had fully divested the initial support they provided during the crisis. Public holdings were divested faster in better capitalized, more profitable, and more liquid banks, and in countries where the economy recovered faster. In countries where the government stake remained high relative to the initial intervention, private investment and credit growth were slower, financial access, depth, efficiency, and competition were worse, and financial stability improved less.

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

Mr.Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Mr.Tamim Bayoumi

Mr.Fabian Valencia

Mr.Karl F Habermeier

The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of turning unconventional policies into conventional ones, how to make monetary policy frameworks more resilient to the risk of being constrained by the zero-lower bound going forward, and the institutional challenges to preserve central bank independence with regards to monetary policy, while allowing adequate government oversight over central banks’ new responsibilities. It will draw policy conclusions where consensus has been reached, and highlight the areas where more work is needed to get more granular policy advice.

Monetary Policy in the New Normal

Elena Carletti

Mr.Robert Marquez

We explore the behavior of supervisors when a centralized agency has full power over all decisions regarding banks, but relies on local supervisors to collect the information necessary to act. This institutional design entails a principal-agent problem between the central and local supervisors if their objective functions differ. Information collection may be inferior to that under fully independent local supervisors or under centralized information collection. And this may increase risk-taking by regulated banks. Yet, a “tougher” central supervisor may increase regulatory standards. Thus, the net effect of centralization on bank risk taking depends on the balance of these two effects.

Supervisory Incentives in a Banking Union

Alberto Martin

Alex Popov

Nigel Jenkinson

Mr.Luc Laeven

Caio Ferreira

Ms.Camelia Minoiu

This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

Ivanna Vladkova Hollar

Mr.Carlo Cottarelli

Following a period of privatization and restructuring, commercial banks in Central and Eastern Europe and, more recently, in the Balkans have rapidly expanded their lending to the private sector. This paper describes the causes of this expansion, assesses future trends, and evaluates its policy implications. It concludes that bank credit to the private sector is likely to continue rising faster than GDP in the next few years throughout the region, picking up also in countries where so far it has been stalled. Although this growth should be regarded as a structural and positive development, policymakers will have to evaluate carefully its implications for macroeconomic developments and financial stability.

Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans

Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties

Dalida Kadyrzhanova

Mr.Lev Ratnovski

We study bank portfolio allocations during the transition of the real sector to a knowledge economy in which firms use less tangible capital and invest more in intangible assets. We show that, as firms shift toward intangible assets that have lower collateral values, banks reallocate their portfolios away from commercial loans toward other assets, primarily residential real estate loans and liquid assets. This effect is more pronounced for large and less well capitalized banks and is robust to controlling for real estate loan demand. Our results suggest that increased firm investment in intangible assets can explain up to 20% of bank portfolio reallocation from commercial to residential lending over the last four decades.

Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy

Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

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