Ms.Li L. Ong

Mr.Rodolfo Maino

Ms.Nombulelo Duma

Stress testing has become the risk management tool du jour in the wake of the global financial crisis. In countries where the information reported by financial institutions is considered to be of sufficiently good quality, and supervisory and regulatory standards are high, stress tests can be of significant value. In contrast, the proliferation of stress testing in underdeveloped financial systems with weak oversight regimes is fraught with uncertainties, as it is unclear what the results actually represent and how they could be usefully applied. In this paper, problems associated with stress tests using weak data are examined. We offer a potentially more useful alternative, the "breaking point" method, which also requires close coordination with on-site supervision and complemented by other supervisory tools and qualitative information. Excel spreadsheet templates of the stress tests presented in this paper are provided.

Stress Testing with Weak Data

Into the Great Unknown

Ms.Bergljot Barkbu

The proliferation of foreign exchange (FX) swaps as a source of funding and as a hedging tool has focused attention on the role of the FX swap market in the recent crisis. The turbulence in international money markets spilled over into the FX swap market in the second-half of 2007 and into 2008, giving rise to concerns over the ability of banks to roll over their funding requirements and manage their liquidity risk. The turmoil also raised questions about banks' ability to continue their supply of credit to the local economy, as well as the external financing gap it could create. In this paper, we examine the channels through which FX swap transactions could affect a country's financial and economic stability, and highlight the strategies central banks can employ to mitigate market pressures. While not offering any judgment on the instrument itself, we show that the use of FX swaps for funding and hedging purposes is not infallible, especially during periods of market stress.

Implications for Financial and Economic Stability

FX Swaps

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certainelements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.

Ms.Li L. Ong

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