Nadeem Ul Haque

Nelson Mark

Donald J. Mathieson

This study examines the relative importance of political and economic variables in the determination of a country's standing in credit ratings provided by commercial rating agencies. It finds that creditworthiness appears to be determined primarily by economic variables. While including political events can improve the explanatory power of the regressions, the exclusion of political variables does not bias the parameter estimates for the effects of economic variables.

The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings

International Monetary Fund

Peter J. Montiel

The analysis in this paper suggests that the large fiscal deficits that Pakistan has experienced over most of the period since 1970 led to some crowding out of private investment, resulting in slower output growth than would otherwise have been observed. Past fiscal deficits have also resulted in a substantial accumulation of domestic and external debt. In addition, the possibilities for currency substitution that have been created by the removal of restrictions on capital flows from Pakistan, as well as on foreign currency holdings of domestic residents, may have limited the potential for collecting the inflation tax. Accordingly, continued effort is likely to be needed to attain a fiscal position that is sustainable over the medium term.

Nadeem Ul Haque

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