Willem Th. Oosterveld

Tim Sweijs

Barin Kayaoğlu

Nicholas Farnham

Willem Bloem

Appearing seemingly out of nowhere over the course of 2013-14, the Islamic State, or Daesh, captured the attention of international audiences through widely broadcast acts of barbarity, followed by the proclamation of its own state and upending state borders in the process. The rise of the terror organization has prompted many questions: where did it originate from? How has it been able to establish itself so quickly? Can it actually persist? Can it be defeated? The aim of this year’s study, entitled “The Rise and Fall of ISIS: from Evitability to Inevitability”, is to understand the organization, its motivations, its inherent weaknesses, as well as its ability to endure. A broader aim is to set out how it could develop as it comes under ever more pressure by regional powers and, in the case of its defeat, how to prevent the arrival of the next ISIS. A key message of this chapter is that ISIS is a ‘child of its time’ and is not destined to persist. Its professed millenarian or eschatological bent is meant to cast the conflict between the Caliphate and the rest of the word as a cosmic battle, but in reality is largely of instrumental value. Also, while its rise could have been prevented, its fall looks all but inevitable, even if it remains unclear what will replace it. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

From Evitability to Inevitability

The Rise and Fall of ISIS

Stephan De Spiegeleire

The presence of peace is more than the absence of conflict. Analyses and evaluations of the state of the international security environment often focus solely on the most concerning developments and tend to fall back on various conflict-centric metrics when providing assessments of a given security landscape. This chapter, entitled “The Other Side of the Security Coin” investigates a number of positive socioeconomic trends occurring on a global level and how they can contribute to sustainable peace in the future. Improving citizens’ access to socioeconomic opportunities and livelihood-enhancing goods and services is a key factor in increasing the stake that citizens hold in the state of peace in their communities. Fitting within global trends such as the rise of the platform economy and social media, the role of technological and developmental processes improving individual empowerment will become more important for security and defense organizations in the near future. As to how we can leverage the dramatic changes ongoing throughout the world to better suit our security objectives remains yet to be seen. This study provides a brief overview of these trends and identifies the options for security and defense organizations to remain on top of them. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

The Other Side of the Security Coin

Rob de Rave

Still in dangerous waters since the shock of the attempted military coup in July 2016, the behavior of The Republic of Turkey – long considered an important strategic partner for the West – has become increasingly unpredictable. Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in coming years, or perhaps even months? What kinds of paths lay ahead of a possible Turkish “pivot” away from the West? What does this mean for the West’s strategic interests in the region? Authored by Dr. Barin Kayaoğlu of the American University of Iraq, this year’s study entitled “A Farewell to the West? Turkey’s Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt” explores the conditions that could lead Turkey to change its foreign policy direction in the near future, exploring four distinctive possibilities that could all have important implications for Europe, and the wider world. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Turkey’s Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt

A Farewell to the West?

Nicholas Farnham

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