Ortwin Renn

Jeryl L. Mumpower

V.R.R. Uppuluri

Lawrence D. Phillips

This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.

Expert Judgment and Expert Systems

Als die deutsche Bundesregierung im Juni 2011 die Energiewende verkündete, läutete sie damit gleichzeitig das Ende der Kernenergienutzung zur Stromproduktion ein. Bis zum Jahr 2022 soll kein deutsches Kernkraftwerk mehr Strom produzieren. Allerdings ist die Frage nach der Endlagerung radioaktiver Abfälle nicht beantwortet. Bislang ist weltweit noch kein Endlager für wärmeentwickelnde Abfälle in Betrieb. Hinsichtlich der Langzeitsicherheit eines Endlagers ist neben Art und Menge der Abfälle auch die Dauer entscheidend, über die die Abfälle sicher aufbewahrt werden müssen. Eine Möglichkeit, das Langzeit-Gefährdungspotenzial wärmeentwickelnder Abfälle zu verringern, könnte Partitionierung und Transmutation (P&T) sein, eine Technik, die sich derzeit in Forschung und Entwicklung befindet. In einem interdisziplinären Forschungsprojekt wurden die technischen und gesellschaftlichen Chancen und Risiken von P&T anhand von Szenarien untersucht. Das übergeordnete Ziel war es, eine sachgerechte und ausgewogene Grundlage zu erarbeiten, anhand derer entschieden werden kann, wie sich Deutschland in Fragen der P&T-Forschung zukünftig positionieren möchte. Die vorliegende acatech STUDIE fasst die Ergebnisse des Forschungsprojekts zusammen und gibt Aufschluss über die Möglichkeiten und Perspektiven von P&T in Deutschland.

Forschung – Entwicklung – Gesellschaftliche Implikationen

Partitionierung und Transmutation

Was uns wirklich bedroht und wie wir richtig damit umgehenNahezu täglich bringen uns die Medien neue Hiobsbotschaften: steigende Kriminalität, Vogelgrippe oder Elektrosmog. Wird unser Leben nicht immer gefährlicher, unsicherer, risikoreicher? Ortwin Renn, international anerkannter Risikoforscher, sagt: nein. Die durchschnittliche Lebenserwartung steigt beständig, in vielerlei Hinsicht geht es uns immer besser. Wie fürchten uns, so Renn, vor "falschen" Gefahren, verschließen aber die Augen vor Risiken, die uns und unsere Nachwelt erheblich bedrohen. Renn zeigt, welches diese sind, warum wir sie unterschätzen und wie wir im Sinne der Nachhaltigkeit verantwortungsvoll damit umgehen können.

Warum wir uns vor dem Falschen fürchten

Das Risikoparadox

Andreas Klinke

Jean-Paul Lehners

This title was first published in 2000: The papers presented in this volume are based on the discussions of a workshop which asked: how can ethnic and political cooperation be accomplished in ethnically and politically heterogeneous countries after the collapse of the communist regimes which left a void for nationalist and even chauvinist movements? The objectives are: to promote a better understanding of the contemporary "ethnic" conflicts and their social, cultural and political causes; to determine the historical, structural and political developments that have led to or intensified these conflicts; to analyze and develop positive role models for coping with such conflicts; to provide constructive proposals for future conflict resolution mechanisms; and to identify the crucial elements for building trust-generating institutions on the basis of the civil society model. The papers address ethnic conflicts in Eastern Europe, with a particular focus on the former republics of Yugoslavia. They aim to go beyond the analysis of causes and manifestations of such conflicts and to offer constructive ideas for the post-Civil-War period.

Proposals for a New Era in Eastern Europe

Ethnic Conflicts and Civil Society: Proposals for a New Era in Eastern Europe

Eckard Rehbinder

Christian Streffer

Carl Friedrich Gethmann

Robert Guderian

Josef Bücker

Adrienne Cansier

Dieter Cansier

Gerd Hanekamp

Dietrich Henschler

Gerald Pöch

Marco Slesina

Kerstin Wuttke

The rapid growth of the world population - nearly six-fold over the last hundred years - combined with the rising number of technical installations especially in the industrialized countries has lead to ever tighter and more strained living spaces on our planet. Because ofthe inevitable processes oflife, man was at first an exploiter rather than a careful preserver of the environment. Environmental awareness with the intention to conserve the environment has grown only in the last few decades. Environmental standards have been defined and limit values have been set largely guided, however, by scientific and medical data on single exposures, while public opinion, on the other hand, now increasingly calls for astronger consideration of the more complex situations following combined exposures. Furthermore, it turned out that environmental standards, while necessarily based on scientific data, must also take into account ethical, legal, economic, and sociological aspects. A task of such complexity can only be dealt with appropriately in the framework of an inter disciplinary group.

Combined Exposures and Their Effects on Human Beings and Their Environment

Environmental Standards

Terje Aven

Risk is a popular topic in many sciences - in natural, medical, statistical, engineering, social, economic and legal disciplines. Yet, no single discipline can grasp the full meaning of risk. Investigating risk requires a multidisciplinary approach. The authors, coming from two very different disciplinary traditions, meet this challenge by building bridges between the engineering, the statistical and the social science perspectives. The book provides a comprehensive, accessible and concise guide to risk assessment, management and governance. A basic pillar for the book is the risk governance framework proposed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). This framework offers a comprehensive means of integrating risk identification, assessment, management and communication. The authors develop and explain new insights and add substance to the various elements of the framework. The theoretical analysis is illustrated by several examples from different areas of applications.

Concepts, Guidelines and Applications

Risk Management and Governance

Jeanne X. Kasperson

Roger E. Kasperson

Halina Szejnwald Brown

Patrick Derr

Allen L. White

The relationship between multinational corporations and developing countries is frequently characterized by different perspectives and unease. Protection of health, environmental concerns, and other considerations pose potential areas of conflict. Brown and her co-authors use three important case studies and data drawn from extensive access to Du Pont Agrichemical, Occidental Chemical, and Xerox to explore how corporations and nations relate and interact to produce decisions on development, equity, and independence. Those decisions, in turn, involve environmental, health, and safety outcomes. This is an unprecedented analysis of the dynamics and interdependence of multinationals and developing countries as they seek, for independent reasons, to cooperate, on facility development.

Societal Values in International Technology Transfer

Corporate Environmentalism in a Global Economy

Thomas Webler

Peter Wiedemann

Ortwin Renn Thomas Wehler Peter Wiedemann In late July of 1992 the small and remote mountain resort of Morschach in the Swiss Alps became a lively place of discussion, debate, and discourse. Over a three-day period twenty-two analysts and practitioners of public participation from the United States and Europe came together to address one of the most pressing issues in contemporary environmental politics: How can environmental policies be designed in a way that achieves both effective protection of nature and an adequate representation of public values? In other words, how can we make the environmental decision process competent and fair? All the invited scholars from academia, international research institutes, and governmental agencies agreed on one fundamental principle: For environmental policies to be effective and legitimate, we need to involve the people who are or will be affected by the outcomes of these policies. There is no technocratic solution to this problem. Without public involvement, environmental policies are doomed to fail. The workshop was preceded by a joint effort by the three editors to develop a framework for evaluating different models of public participation in the environmental policy arena. During a preliminary review of the literature we made four major observations. These came to serve as the primary motivation for this book. First, the last decade has witnessed only a fair amount of interest within the sociological or political science communities in issues of public participation.

Evaluating Models for Environmental Discourse

Fairness and Competence in Citizen Participation

Nicole C. Karafyllis

Andreas Hohlt

Dorothea Taube

Education in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) is crucial for taking advantage of the prospects of new scientific discoveries initiating or promoting technological changes, and managing opportunities and risks associated with innovations. This book explores the emerging perspectives and methodologies of STEM education and its relationship to the cultural understanding of science and technology in an international context. The authors provide a unique perspective on the subject, presenting materials and experiences from non-European industrialized as well as industrializing countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, India, Egypt, Brazil and the USA. The chapters offer a wide scope of interpretations and comparative reviews of STEM education by including narrative elements about cultural developments, considering the influence of culture and social perceptions on technological and social change, and applying innovative tools of qualitative social research. The book represents a comprehensive and multidisciplinary review of the current status and future challenges facing STEM education across the world, including issues such as globalization, interdependencies of norms and values, effects on equity and social justice as well as resilience. Overall the volume provides valuable insights for a broad and comprehensive international comparison of STEM philosophies, approaches and experiences.

Exploring Culture, Economy and Social Perceptions

International Science and Technology Education

A. Reichel

J Bauer

Civil society and its organisations (CSO) play a vital role in the implementation of and social change towards sustainable development (SD). Civil society actors exhibit special features: They are to a large degree driven by visions and ideals, they place a focus on common action thus balancing individual and collective goals.CSO participate in and initiate as well as organise discourses about SD in society.Through their activities, social capital is built, maintained and increase.CSO provide and share a non-economical, non-efficiency driven world view to the implementation process of SD.This guidebook gives an insight to the impact of CSO on governance processes towards SD from three different viewpoints: Theoretical perspectives on Civil Society and Sustainability reflects on theoretical concepts of Civil Society and its contribution to SD.Case studies from practice on Civil Society and Sustainability give insights from Implementation Practice and shows tools and methods.Examples from collaboration between Science and Civil Society show how science and civil society can cooperate for innovative concepts of reaching SD.Case studies and examples are the combined results of the research project "Civil Society for Sustainability," funded under the 7th Framework Research Program of the European Union, and presentations and discussions from the "International Conference on Connecting Civil Society and Science: A Key Challenge for Change towards Sustainable Development" in October 2011 in Stuttgart, Germany.The Editor, Ortwin Renn serves as full professor and "Chair of Environmental Sociology and Technology Assessment" at Stuttgart University (Germany). He directs the "Interdisciplinary Research Unit for Risk Governance and Sustainable Technology Development" (ZIRN) at Stuttgart University and the "non-profit company DIALOGIK," a research institute for the investigation of communication and participation processes in environmental policy making. Renn also serves as Adju

A Guidebook for Connecting Science and Society

Civil Society for Sustainability

Katherine D. Walker

The establishment of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) was the direct result of widespread concern that the complexity and interdependence of health, environmental, and technological risks facing the world was making the development and implementation of adequate risk governance strategies ever more difficult. This volume details the IRGC developed and proposed framework for risk governance and covers how it was peer reviewed as well as tested

Concept and Practice Using the IRGC Framework

Global Risk Governance

Klaus Mainzer

Michael Molls

Peter A. Wilderer

Martin Grambow

Here, expert authors delineate approaches that can support both decision makers as well as their concerned populations in overcoming unwarranted fears and in elaborating policies based on scientific evidence. Four exemplary focus areas were chosen for in-depth review, namely:- The scientific basis of risk management- Risk management in the area of environmental and ecological policy- Risk management in radiation medicine- Risk management in context with digitalization and roboticsGeneral as well as specific recommendations are summarized in a memorandum. Fundamental thoughts on the topic are presented in the introductory part of the book. The idea for and contents of the book were developed at a workshop on “Sustainable Risk Management: How to manage risks in a sensible and responsible manner?” held in Feldafing at Lake Starnberg (Germany) on April 14 to 16, 2016. The book offers important information and advice for scientists, entrepreneurs, administrators and politicians.

Sustainable Risk Management

Eugene Rosa

Aaron McCright

Risk is a part of life. How we handle uncertainty and deal with potential threats influence decision making throughout our lives. In The Risk Society Revisited, Eugene A. Rosa, Ortwin Renn, and Aaron M. McCright offer the first book to present an integrated theory of risk and governance. The authors examine our sociological understanding of risk and how we reconcile modern human conditions with our handling of risk in our quest for improved quality of life. They build a new framework for understanding risk—one that provides an innovative connection between social theory and the governance of technological and environmental risks and the sociopolitical challenges they pose for a sustainable future. Showing how our consciousness affects risk in the decisions we make—as individuals and as members of a democratic society—The Risk Society Revisited makes an important contribution to the literature of risk research.

Social Theory and Risk Governance

The Risk Society Revisited

Marion Dreyer

working mechanisms and to develop the overall governance framework in which we operate. Catherine Geslain-Lanéelle Executive Director European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Parma, March 2008 Acknowledgements This book and the General Framework for the Precautionary and Inclusive Governance of Food Safety that it presents and critically discusses have grown out of research undertaken within one of the subprojects (work package 5) of the research project SAFE FOODS, ‘Promoting Food Safety through a New Integrated Risk Analysis Approach for Foods’. The Integrated Project SAFE FOODS has been funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme (April 2004 to June 2008) and coordinated by Dr H.A. Kuiper and Dr H.J.P. Marvin of RIKILT-Institute of Food Safety at the University of Wageningen in the Netherlands. Subproject 5 of SAFE FOODS has dealt with institutional aspects of food safety governance with a focus on ways (procedural and structural mec- nisms) to improve the implementation of precaution, participation and a politi- science interface, and has been coordinated by the editors of this book. The General Framework and this book have been a collaborative effort of subproject 5 in which all contributors to the first part of this book were involved. We have very much appreciated this exceptionally fruitful cooperation. It has always been both greatly intellectually inspiring (with many intensive, focused discussions) and very pleasant (highly cooperative and reliable).

Integrating Science, Precaution and Public Involvement

Food Safety Governance

Wolfgang Kröger

Georg Kamp

Radioactive waste (above all highly radioactive wastes from nuclear installations) caused by research, medicine and technology must be disposed of safely. However both the strategies disputed for the disposal of radioactive waste as well as concrete proposals for choosing a location for final waste disposal are highly debatable. An appropriate disposal must conform to both complex, technical requirements and fulfill the radio-biological conditions to appropriately protect man and nature. Ethical, legal and social conditions must also be considered. An interdisciplinary team from various, relevant fields compiled the current status-quo and developed criteria and strategies, which on the one hand meet the requirements of optimal warning and prevention of risk for present and future generations, and additionally on the other hand meet the needs of what current society agrees what is expected to be allowed. This study can be understood as an advanced and continuing contribution to the corresponding scientific specialized debates, due to its interdisciplinary treatment. At the same time it serves as a fundamentally informing contribution to public and political debates, offering an easily comprehensible executive summary and precise content recommendations.

Technical and Normative Aspects of its Disposal

Radioactive Waste

Eugene A. Rosa

Carlo C. Jaeger

Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association

Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action

Risk Governance is a tour de force. Every risk manager, every risk analyst, every risk researcher must read this book - it is the demarcation point for all further advances in risk policy and risk research. Renn provides authoritative guidance on how to manage risks based on a definitive synthesis of the research literature. The skill with which he builds practical recommendations from solid science is unprecedented. Thomas Dietz, Director, Environmental Science and Policy Program, Michigan State University, USA A masterpiece of new knowledge and wisdom with illustrative examples of tested applications to realworld cases. The book is recommendable also to interested students in different disciplines as a timely textbook on 'risk beyond risk'. Norio Okada, Full Professor and Director at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Japan There are classic environmental works such as The Tragedy of the Commons by Hardin, Risk Society by Beck, The Theory of Communicative Action by Habermas, and the seminal volumes by Ostrom on governing the commons. Renns book fits right into this series of important milestones of environmental studies. Jochen Jaeger, Professor at Concordia University, Montreal, Canada Risk Governance provides a valuable survey of the whole field of risk and demonstrates how scientific, economic, political and civil society actors can participate in inclusive risk governance. Jobst Conrad, Senior Scientist, Social Science Research Center Berlin, Germany Renn offers a remarkably fair-minded and systematic approach to bringing together the diverse fields that have something to say about 'risk'. Risk Governance moves us along the path from the noisy, formative stage of thinking about risk to one with a stronger empirical, theoretical, and analytical foundation. Baruch Fischhoff, PhD, Howard Heinz University Professor, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA 'I cannot describe how impressed I am at the breadth and coherence of Renn's career's work! Written with remarkable clarity and minimal technical jargon... [this] should be required reading in risk courses!' John Graham, former director of the Harvard Risk Center and former deputy director of the Office of Budget and Management of the Unites States Administration This book, for the first time, brings together and updates the groundbreaking work of renowned risk theorist and researcher Ortwin Renn, integrating the major disciplinary concepts of risk in the social, engineering and natural sciences. The book opens with the context of risk handling before flowing through the core topics of assessment, evaluation, perception, management and communication, culminating in a look at the transition from risk management to risk governance and a glimpse at a new understanding of risk in (post)modern societies.

Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World

Risk Governance

Ortwin Renn

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