Patric H. Hendershott

Joe Peek

Abstract: Six specific hypotheses are investigated in this paper.

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John Davis Stegman

Stephen L. Mangum

L. Belbin

Gary B. Hansen

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Varghese S. Jacob

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Rosemary Kalapurakal

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G. Keong Leong

P. V. Balakrishnan

Riad A. Ajami

Edward James Kane

Roger D. Blackwell

Jim Hutchison

W. Wayne Talarzyk

Scott Snell

Howard J. Klein

Robert E. Widing

Basheer M. Khumawala

Michael D. Oliff

Sudir K. Chawla

Thomas Thibodeau

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Thomas George

Hasan Pirkul

Greg Martin Allenby

Erik Rolland

Jill D. Mathias

John Richard Current

Karen Marlene Oberg

Margaret M. Forster

Mary K. Marvel

Peter Eric Rossi

Howard P. Marvel

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Model simulations are run to obtain a range of realistic estimates of the long-run revenue impact of a capital-gains tax-rate cut to a maximum of 15 percent. The basic vehicle for the simulations is a slightly modified version of the Galper-Lucice-Toder (GLT) general equilibrium model. The key behavioral assumptions affecting the estimates are: (1) the portfolio and tangible capital reallocations implicit in the structure of the GLT model, (2) corporate payouts responses based on recent empirical estimates, and (3) illustrative noncorporate recharacterizations of regular income as capital gains. The essential message of this paper is that the strong emphasis in the literation on the realization response to a capital gains tax rate cut has been appropriate. The payout/recharacterization and portfolio redistribution/reallocation effects do not appear to be large. Moreover, the portfolio responses, within the context of the GLT model, act to raise tax revenues (substitution of taxable business capital for tax free household and state and local capital), not lower them as has been conjectured. Thus these responses offset the payout/recharacterization effects, leaving the realization response as basically the total response. Future research could, of course, modify this finding.

The Long-run Impact on Federal Tax Revenues and Capital Allocation of a Cut in the Capital Gains Tax Rate

Patric H. Hendershott

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