William Shaw

Richard Newfarmer

Peter Walkenhorst

International trade in 2009 is projected to contract for the first time since 1982. As a result, export diversifi cation has gained new urgency as one way of using exports to recover lost growth momentum. Moreover, diversifi cation is central to reducing income volatility and sustaining high growth rates, which are especially important for countries with large populations living in poverty. In the 1950s, countries became concerned that their dependence on primary products would lead to steady falls in the purchasing power of primary exports and thus slow growth. A major policy objective of developing countries since that time has been to diversify out of primary products into manufactures. Although some nations have been at least partially successful, many low-income countries remain dependent on a narrow range of primary products. 'Breaking Into New Markets' argues for a comprehensive view of diversifi cation. It explores new thinking and evidence about export diversifi cation and elaborates on policies for its promotion. These policies span tariffs and taxes, services, and government activities to help fi rms take advantage of global opportunities. The book is a compilation of chapters written as short, policy-focused pieces. Many digest longer, more academic papers in an effort to make the information accessible to a larger policy and nontechnical audience. In that sense, the book is a policy primer on what export diversifi cation can and cannot do for growth and how to make diversifi cation happen. Intelligently designed policies that effi ciently address the obstacles to export growth are critical for overall economic growth and poverty reduction. This book offers insights useful to policy makers and practitioners as they embark on efforts to design new programs of competitiveness in their trade strategies.

Emerging Lessons for Export Diversification

Breaking Into New Markets

Finn Tarp

John Page

By 2030 more than three quarters of the world's absolute poor are projected to live in Africa. Accelerating economic growth is key to rising incomes on the continent, and central to this challenge is establishing activities that are capable of employing large numbers of unskilled workers, that can raise productivity through innovation, and that can power growth through exports. Such structural transformation is a key driver of growth, and between 1950-1996 about half of the economic catch-up by developing countries (led by East Asia) was due to rising productivity in manufacturing combined with growing agricultural output. Africa, however, has lagged behind. In 2014, the average share of manufacturing in GDP in sub-Saharan Africa hovered around 10 per cent, unchanged from the 1970s, leading some observers to be pessimistic about Africa's potential to catch the wave of sustained rapid growth and rising incomes. Industries Without Smokestacks: Industrialization in Africa Reconsidered challenges this view. It argues that other activities sharing the characteristics of manufacturing- including tourism, ICT, and other services as well as food processing and horticulture- are beginning to play a role analogous to that played by manufacturing in East Asia. This reflects not only changes in the global organization of industries since the early era of rapid East Asian growth, but also advantages unique to Africa. These 'industries without smokestacks' offer new opportunities for Africa to grow in coming decades.

Richard Newfarmer

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