Seth G. Jones

Director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center Seth G Jones

The RAND analyst author of The Rise of European Security Cooperation traces the American experience in Afghanistan from the rise of the Taliban to present-day insurgency activities, drawing on new research and declassified documents to contend that a misallocation of resources to Iraq left forces in Afghanistan ineffectual.

In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan

The dramatic, untold story of one of the CIA’s most successful Cold War intelligence operations. December, 1981—the CIA receives word that the Polish government has cut telephone communications with the West and closed the Polish border. The agency’s leaders quickly inform President Ronald Reagan, who is enjoying a serene weekend at Camp David. Within hours, Prime Minister Wojciech Jaruzelski has appeared on Polish national television to announce the establishment of martial law. A new era in Cold War politics has begun: Washington and Moscow are on a collision course. In this gripping narrative history, Seth G. Jones reveals the little-known story of the CIA’s subsequent operations in Poland, which produced a landmark victory for democracy during the Cold War. While the Soviet-backed Polish government worked to crush a budding liberal opposition movement, the CIA began a sophisticated intelligence campaign, code-named QRHELPFUL, that supported dissident groups. The most powerful of these groups was Solidarity, a trade union that swelled to a membership of ten million and became one of the first legitimate anti-Communist opposition movements in Eastern Europe. With President Reagan’s support, the CIA provided money that helped Solidarity print newspapers, broadcast radio programs, and conduct a wide-ranging information warfare campaign against the Soviet-backed government. QRHELPFUL proved vital in establishing a free and democratic Poland. Long overlooked by CIA historians and Reagan biographers, the story of QRHELPFUL features an extraordinary cast of characters—including spymaster Bill Casey, CIA officer Richard Malzahn, Polish-speaking CIA case officer Celia Larkin, Solidarity leader Lech Walesa, and Pope John Paul II. Based on in-depth interviews and recently declassified evidence, A Covert Action celebrates a decisive victory over tyranny for U.S. intelligence behind the Iron Curtain, one that prefigured the Soviet collapse.

A Covert Action: Reagan, the CIA, and the Cold War Struggle in Poland

Russia, China, Iran and the Rise of Irregular Warfare

Three Dangerous Men

In The American Edge, Seth G. Jones explains how the industrial bases of the world's great military powers have risen and fallen over the past century-and what it means for America. Today, the US's military base lacks the capacity and flexibility necessary to deter China's growing military power, but the country's private sector is flourishing with companies including SpaceX, Microsoft, and Anduril exhibiting tremendous innovation. To regain its capacity to effectively deter China and retain its unmatched status, the US must deepen its partnerships with the nation's most innovative tech companies.

The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance

The American Edge

Emily Harding

Catrina Doxsee

Jake Harrington

Riley McCabe

China is conducting an unprecedented campaign below the threshold of armed conflict to expand the influence of the Chinese Communist Party and weaken the United States and its partners. The scale of China's actions in the United States is unparalleled. This CSIS report offers one of the most comprehensive analyses to date of Chinese political warfare activities and examines China's main actions, primary goals, and options for the United States and its partners.

China's Strategy of Political Warfare

Competing Without Fighting

This study explores the nature of the insurgency in Afghanistan, the key challenges and successes of the U.S.-led counterinsurgency campaign, and the capabilities necessary to wage effective counterinsurgency operations. By examining the key lessons from all insurgencies since World War II, it finds that most policymakers repeatedly underestimate the importance of indigenous actors to counterinsurgency efforts. The U.S. should focus its resources on helping improve the capacity of the indigenous government and indigenous security forces to wage counterinsurgency. It has not always done this well. The U.S. military-along with U.S. civilian agencies and other coalition partners-is more likely to be successful in counterinsurgency warfare the more capable and legitimate the indigenous security forces (especially the police), the better the governance capacity of the local state, and the less external support that insurgents receive.

Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

Cheryl Benard

Cathryn Quantic Thurston

Olga Oliker

Brooke K. Stearns

Using a case study of Afghanistan, this study examines gender-specific impacts of conflict and post-conflict and the ways they may affect women differently than they affect men. It analyzes the role of women in the nation-building process and considers outcomes that might occur if current practices were modified. Recommendations are made for improving data collection in conflict zones and for enhancing the outcomes of nation-building programs.

Women and Nation Building

Nathan Chandler

Andrew M. Liepman

This study examines the counterterrorism and counterinsurgency campaign against al Shabaab in Somalia. It concludes that, while al Shabaab was weakened between 2011 and 2016, it could resurge if urgent steps are not taken to address key challenges.

Assessing the Campaign Against Al Shabaab

Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency in Somalia

Keith Crane

James Dobbins

Andrew Rathmell

Brett Steele

Reviews UN efforts to transform eight unstable countries into democratic, peaceful, and prosperous partners, and compares those missions with U.S. nation-building operations. The UN provides the most suitable institutional framework for nation-building missions that require fewer than 20,000 men-one with a comparatively low cost structure, a comparatively high success rate, and the greatest degree of international legitimacy.

The UN's Role in Nation-Building: From the Congo to Iraq

C. Christine Fair

Pakistan has undertaken a number of operations against militant groups since 2001. There have been some successes, but such groups as al Qa1ida continue to present a significant threat to Pakistan, the United States, and other countries. Pakistan needs to establish a population-centric counterinsurgency that better protects the local population and addresses grievances. It also needs to abandon militancy as a tool of foreign and domestic policy.

Counterinsurgency in Pakistan

This report examines Russia’s military and diplomatic campaign in Syria, the largest and most significant Russian out-of-area operation since the end of the Cold War. Russia’s experience in Syria will shape its military thinking, influence promotion and personnel decisions, impact research and development for its arms industry, and expand its influence in the Middle East and beyond for the foreseeable future. Yet despite the importance of Russia’s involvement in Syria—especially as the United States competes with countries such as Russia and China—there has been little systematic analysis of Russia’s campaign in Syria. This research aims to help fill the gap and provides some new analysis and data. It conducts a broad assessment of the Russian campaign—including political objectives, diplomatic initiatives, and civilian targeting—which places the military campaign in a wider context. In addition, it compiles a data set of Russia’s civilian targeting and analyzes satellite imagery of Russian activity. Overall, this report concludes that Russia was relatively successful in achieving its main near-term political and military objectives in Syria, including preventing the collapse of the Assad regime (an important regional partner) and thwarting a possible U.S. attempt to overthrow Assad. Still, Russia used a systematic punishment campaign that involved attacks against civilian and humanitarian infrastructure in an attempt to deny resources—including food, fuel, and medical aid—to the opposition while simultaneously eroding the will of civilians to support opposition groups.

Moscow's War in Syria

This study examines the results of U.S. assistance to the internal security forces of four repressive states: El Salvador, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Efforts to improve the security, human rights, and accountability of security forces appear more likely to succeed in states transitioning from repressive to democratic systems. In addition, several factors are critical for success: the duration of assistance, viability of the justice system, and support and buy-in from the local government (including key ministries).

U.S. Internal Security Assistance to Repressive and Transitioning Regimes

Securing Tyrants Or Fostering Reform?

This report analyzes the U.S. and allied campaign against the al Qa’ida–linked terrorist group al Shabaab in Somalia, examines what steps have been most successful against the group, and identifies potential recommendations. It concludes that, while al Shaba'ab was weakened between 2011 and 2016, the group could resurge if urgent steps are not taken to address the political, economic, and governance challenges at the heart of the conflict.

Robert E. Hunter

Throughout the history of Arab-Israeli peace negotiations, security has been the most important-and most challenging-issue for Palestinians, Israelis, and their neighbors. This study examines key external security issues regarding the construction of a Palestinian state. Its proposals include a NATO-led international peace-enabling force and Israeli-Palestinian confidence-building measures.

Security

Building a Successful Palestinian State

Jeremy M. Wilson

K. Jack Riley

In a nation-building operation, outside states invest much of their resources in establishing and maintaining the host country's police, internal security forces, and justice system. This book examines post-Cold War reconstruction efforts, such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, and assesses the success of U.S. and allied efforts in reconstructing internal security institutions.

Establishing Law and Order After Conflict

A systematic and comprehensive analysis of the significant increase in security cooperation among European states.

The Rise of European Security Cooperation

Examines the status and evolution of al Qa ida and other Salafi-jihadists, and uses qualitative and quantitative data to assess whether this movement has strengthened. Analyzes U.S. strategic options to counter al Qa ida and other terrorist groups."

The Evolution of Al Qa'ida and Other Salafi Jihadists

A Persistent Threat

Benjamin Runkle

Siddharth Mohandas

Focuses on the activities of the Coalition Provisional Authority during the first year of the occupation of Iraq. Based on interviews and nearly 100,000 never-before-released documents from CPA archives, the book recounts and evaluates the efforts of the United States and its coalition partners to restore public services, counter a burgeoning insurgency, and create the basis for representative government.

A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority

Occupying Iraq

Martin C. Libicki

Finally, groups from upper-income countries are more likely to be left-wing or nationalist and less likely to have religion as their motivation. The authors conclude that policing and intelligence, rather than military force, should form the backbone of U.S. efforts against al Qa'ida. And U.S. policymakers should end the use of the phrase "war on terrorism" since there is no battlefield solution to defeating al Qa'ida."--BOOK JACKET.

Seth G. Jones

Books

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