Seth Stein

In the winter of 1811-12, a series of large earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone-often incorrectly described as the biggest ever to hit the United States-shook the Midwest. Today the federal government ranks the hazard in the Midwest as high as California's and is pressuring communities to undertake expensive preparations for disaster. Disaster Deferred revisits these earthquakes, the legends surrounding them, and the predictions of doom following in their wake. Seth Stein clearly explains the techniques seismologists use to study Midwestern quakes and estimate their danger. Detailing how limited scientific knowledge, bureaucratic instincts, and the media's love of a good story have exaggerated these hazards, Stein calmly debunks the hype surrounding such predictions and encourages the formulation of more sensible, less costly policy.

How New Science is Changing Our View of Earthquake Hazards in the Midwest

Disaster Deferred

John Weber

Nicholas Pinter

Gyula Grenerczy

Damir Medak

Tectonic motion of the Adria microplate exerts a first-order control on the tectonics, geology, seismology, resource distribution, and the geological hazards across a broad zone of south-central Europe and the north-central Mediterranean. Since its first application to geodynamical problems, GPS geodesy has gradually revealed the nature of motion and deformation for most active areas of deformation across the Earth. One of the last remaining regional-scale problems on the planet is the motion and associated deformation in the peri-Adriatic region. Selected local-scale studies have examined aspects of this motion, but to date no truly regional analysis or regional team has systematically attacked the full breadth of this problem. A NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) was held in Veszprém, Hungary from April 4-7, 2004. This workshop brought together a distinguished international group of scientists working in the peri-Adriatic region to: (1) review research activities and results, (2) share technical expertise, and (3) provide a springboard for future collaborative research on Adria geodynamics. Areas of agreement were identified, as well as remaining areas of debate. In addition, attention focused on important scientific questions and the potential for international and interdisciplinary research in the future.

The Adria Microplate: GPS Geodesy, Tectonics and Hazards

Jeffrey T. Freymueller

This volume collects some recent studies on the motions, mechanics, and earthquakes that take place within plate boundary zones. Many of the studies reflect advances made possible by the development of space geodetic techniques. Among the topics of the 21 papers are tectonic processes in the Eurasian-African plate boundary zone, the structure of the Dead Sea basin, the January 2001 Bhuj earthquake in India, geological investigations of the Kamchatka region in Russia, and crustal shortening and extension in the central Andes. There is no index. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.

Plate Boundary Zones

Jerome Stein

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes gameof chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should adeveloping nation allocate its budget between building schools fortowns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant?Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods,or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives besaved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the fundsfor patient care? What should scientists tell the public when– as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes,California – there is a real but small risk of an upcomingearthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes,earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles suchchoices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake,hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expectedfrom detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmartsus, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures orcausing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that areoverestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact thatformulating effective natural hazard policy involves combiningscience, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem andexplore the costs and benefits of different options, in situationswhere the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies aretypically chosen without such analysis, the results are oftendisappointing. This book uses general principles and case studiesto explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view ofnatural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevantgeoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulationseparately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapterinvite readers to confront the complex issues involved. Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, andstudents interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, orpolicy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-levelundergraduate or graduate courses. Additional resources can be found at: ahref="http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature"http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature/a

Seth Stein

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