Shouyang Wang

Kin Keung Lai

Yunjie Wei

With the internationalization of Renminbi (RMB), the gradual liberalization of China's capital account and the recent reform of the RMB pricing mechanism, the RMB exchange rate has been volatile. This book examines how we can forecast exchange rate reliably. It explains how we can do so through a new methodology for exchange rate forecasting. The book also analyzes the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and the exchange rate data decomposition and integration, the domestic economic situation, the international economic situation and the public’s expectations and how these interactions would affect the exchange rate. The book also explains why this comprehensive integrated approach is the best model for optimizing accuracy in exchange rate forecasting.

Renminbi Exchange Rate Forecasting

Lean Yu

This book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks (ANNs), creating and applying the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges.

Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks

Jianping Li

Yong Shi

Yi Peng

Yong Zeng

MCDM 2009, the 20th International Conference on Multiple-Criteria Decision M- ing, emerged as a global forum dedicated to the sharing of original research results and practical development experiences among researchers and application developers from different multiple-criteria decision making-related areas such as multiple-criteria decision aiding, multiple criteria classification, ranking, and sorting, multiple obj- tive continuous and combinatorial optimization, multiple objective metaheuristics, multiple-criteria decision making and preference modeling, and fuzzy multiple-criteria decision making. The theme for MCDM 2009 was “New State of MCDM in the 21st Century.” The conference seeks solutions to challenging problems facing the development of multiple-criteria decision making, and shapes future directions of research by prom- ing high-quality, novel and daring research findings. With the MCDM conference, these new challenges and tools can easily be shared with the multiple-criteria decision making community. The workshop program included nine workshops which focused on different topics in new research challenges and initiatives of MCDM. We received more than 350 submissions for all the workshops, out of which 121 were accepted. This includes 72 regular papers and 49 short papers. We would like to thank all workshop organizers and the Program Committee for the excellent work in maintaining the conference’s standing for high-quality papers.

20th International Conference, MCDM 2009, Chengdu/Jiuzhaigou, China, June 21-26, 2009. Proceedings

Cutting-Edge Research Topics on Multiple Criteria Decision Making

Shashi K. Mishra

The present lecture note is dedicated to the study of the optimality conditions and the duality results for nonlinear vector optimization problems, in ?nite and in?nite dimensions. The problems include are nonlinear vector optimization problems, s- metric dual problems, continuous-time vector optimization problems, relationships between vector optimization and variational inequality problems. Nonlinear vector optimization problems arise in several contexts such as in the building and interpretation of economic models; the study of various technolo- cal processes; the development of optimal choices in ?nance; management science; production processes; transportation problems and statistical decisions, etc. In preparing this lecture note a special effort has been made to obtain a se- contained treatment of the subjects; so we hope that this may be a suitable source for a beginner in this fast growing area of research, a semester graduate course in nonlinear programing, and a good reference book. This book may be useful to theoretical economists, engineers, and applied researchers involved in this area of active research. The lecture note is divided into eight chapters: Chapter 1 brie?y deals with the notion of nonlinear programing problems with basic notations and preliminaries. Chapter 2 deals with various concepts of convex sets, convex functions, invex set, invex functions, quasiinvex functions, pseudoinvex functions, type I and generalized type I functions, V-invex functions, and univex functions.

Generalized Convexity and Vector Optimization

The book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks. It creates and applies the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange-rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges. Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks is targeted at both the academic and practitioner audiences. Managers, analysts and technical practitioners in financial institutions across the world will have considerable interest in the book, and scholars and graduate students studying financial markets and business forecast will also have considerable interest in the book. The book discusses the most important advances in foreign-exchange-rate forecasting and then systematically develops a number of new, innovative, and creatively crafted neural network models that reduce the volatility and speculative risk in the forecasting of foreign exchange rates. The book discusses and illustrates three general types of ANN models. Each of these model types reflect the following innovative and effective characteristics: (1) The first model type is a three-layer, feed-forward neural network with instantaneous learning rates and adaptive momentum factors that produce learning algorithms (both online and offline algorithms) to predict foreign exchange rates. (2) The second model type is the three innovative hybrid learning algorithms that have been created by combining ANNs with exponential smoothing, generalized linear auto-regression, and genetic algorithms. Each of these three hybrid algorithms has been crafted to forecast various aspects synergetic performance. (3) The third model type is the three innovative ensemble learning algorithms that combining multiple neural networks into an ensemble output. Empirical results reveal that these creative models can produce better performance with high accuracy or high efficiency.

Bo Lu

This book is a comparative study of the critical factors in berth productivity in Chinese and South Korean container terminals. It first defines the concept of berth productivity, and then establishes a regression model to evaluate the productivity factor. With the results obtained for the leading Asian container terminals it identifies the relationship between critical factors for berth productivity and their order of importance. The findings provide guidelines for terminal operators to improve berth productivity.

Critical Factors for Berth Productivity in Container Terminal

Jian Chai

Ying Yang

Quanying Lu

Limin Xing

Ting Liang

This book provides insights into China’s energy consumption and pollution as well as its energy saving policies. It explores energy saving ways and argues for an energy consumption revolution, which includes technologies to improve transportation resource efficiency, modification of existing transportation infrastructure and structure. This book uses various analytical models to study the relationships within the transportation system. It also includes comparative analysis of China, Japan, the US and developing countries on traffic demand and transportation energy consumption. This book highlights the urgent need to review China’s current transportation policies in order to secure a breakthrough in energy saving and emissions reduction.

Green Transportation and Energy Consumption in China

Yong Fang

Most of the existing portfolio selection models are based on the probability theory. Though they often deal with the uncertainty via probabilistic - proaches, we have to mention that the probabilistic approaches only partly capture the reality. Some other techniques have also been applied to handle the uncertainty of the ?nancial markets, for instance, the fuzzy set theory [Zadeh (1965)]. In reality, many events with fuzziness are characterized by probabilistic approaches, although they are not random events. The fuzzy set theory has been widely used to solve many practical problems, including ?nancial risk management. By using fuzzy mathematical approaches, quan- tative analysis, qualitative analysis, the experts’ knowledge and the investors’ subjective opinions can be better integrated into a portfolio selection model. The contents of this book mainly comprise of the authors’ research results for fuzzy portfolio selection problems in recent years. In addition, in the book, the authors will also introduce some other important progress in the ?eld of fuzzy portfolio optimization. Some fundamental issues and problems of po- folioselectionhavebeenstudiedsystematicallyandextensivelybytheauthors to apply fuzzy systems theory and optimization methods. A new framework for investment analysis is presented in this book. A series of portfolio sel- tion models are given and some of them might be more e?cient for practical applications. Some application examples are given to illustrate these models by using real data from the Chinese securities markets.

Theory and Methods

Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization

Jian Li

Jia Chen

Risk management has become an essential issue in supply chain management, from the modeling of the decision maker's risk preference, and the studies on uncertain elements such as demand, supply, price, lead time, etc., to the consideration of more practical background including cash flow constraints, inventory financing and delayed cash payment. In this new volume, the authors provide a framework to study the interaction of various factors related to risk and their influence on supply chain management. The scope of areas covered includes operations management, decision analysis, and business administration. This book focuses on several key issues of risk management in supply chains. Specifically, an analysis framework is presented for studying the supplier selection problem and identifying the optimal sourcing strategy in a one-retailer two-suppliers supply chain with random yields. The optimal sourcing strategy of a retailer and the pricing strategies of two suppliers under an environment of supply disruption are investigated. Besides, the authors study the dynamic inventory control problems with cash flow constraints, financing decisions as well as delayed cash payment. In addition, originating from the annual international iron ore price negotiation, the authors model the bargaining process to deal with the risk of wholesale price in the game analysis context. Within the three perspectives of risk management in supply chains, the modeling of decision maker's risk preference has been extensively studied and many results have been obtained to guide the practice. However, the analysis on the other two kinds of topics is still in its infancy, and needs more efforts from academia. It is thus the ambition and innovation for this book to contribute on risk management in supply chains in the following ways: (1) characterizing the explicit sourcing strategy (i.e., single sourcing or dual sourcing) to deal with supply disruption risk; (2) introducing the concepts of financial risk measurement by incorporating cash flow constraints, inventory financing and delayed cash payment into inventory management models; and (3) providing insights for the iron ore price negotiation to help steel manufacturers handle the risk of price increase.

Risk Management of Supply and Cash Flows in Supply Chains

T. C. Edwin Cheng

Yingxue Zhao

Xiaoge Meng

This book is devoted to analysis and design of supply chain contracts with stochastic demand. Given the extensive utilization of contracts in supply chains, the issues concerning contract analysis and design are extremely important for supply chain management (SCM), and substantial research has been developed to address those issues over the past years. Despite the abundance of classical research, new research needs to be conducted in response to new issues emerging with the recent changing business environments, such as the fast-shortening life cycle of product and the increasing globalization of supply chains. This book addresses these issues, with the intention to present new research on how to apply contracts to improve SCM. Contract Analysis and Design for Supply Chains with Stochastic Demand contains eight chapters and each chapter is summarized as follows: Chapter 1 provides a comprehensive review of the classical development of supply chain contracts. Chapter 2 examines the effects of demand uncertainty on the applicability of buyback contracts. Chapter 3 conducts a mean-risk analysis for wholesale price contracts, taking into account contracting value risk and risk preferences. Chapter 4 studies the optimization of product service system by franchise fee contracts in the service-oriented manufacturing supply chain with demand information asymmetry. Chapter 5 develops a bidirectional option contract model and explores the optimal contracting decisions and supply chain coordination issue with the bidirectional option. Chapter 6 addresses supply chain options pricing issue and a value-based pricing scheme is developed for the supply chain options. With a cooperative game theory approach, Chapter 7 explores the issues concerning supply chain contract selection/implementation with the option contract under consideration. Chapter 8 concludes the book and suggests worthy directions for future research.

Contract Analysis and Design for Supply Chains with Stochastic Demand

Yongmiao Hong

Xiangli Liu

Yanhui Liu

This book studies the information spillover among financial markets and explores the intraday effect and ACD models with high frequency data. This book also contributes theoretically by providing a new statistical methodology with comparative advantages for analyzing comovements between two time series. It explores this new method by testing the information spillover between the Chinese stock market and the international market, futures market and spot market. Using the high frequency data, this book investigates the intraday effect and examines which type of ACD model is particularly suited in capturing financial duration dynamics. The book will be of invaluable use to scholars and graduate students interested in comovements among different financial markets and financial market microstructure and to investors and regulation departments looking to improve their risk management.

Shouyang Wang

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