Resnick, Danielle

Siddig, Khalid

Abushama, Hala

Kirui, Oliver K.

This study assesses the political economy of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that brought out in April 2023, resulting in massive violence, displacement, and threats to food security. Based on a series of key informant interviews and other secondary materials, this study identifies that the primary underlying driver of the conflict relates to the rise of competition between the SAF and RSF over productive resources, including within the agri-food system. This scenario has been facilitated by a longstanding lack of scrutiny, accountability, and transparency over the distribution of economic rents and commercial holdings between the two factions. Additionally, the capture of rents from different industries and resources has been a key contributor to the geographic expansion of the conflict. As the conflict continues to rage between the two groups and their associates, it continues to impose considerable impacts on different actors within the agri-food system, posing significant challenges to the planting season and crop production, introducing blockades of trade routes, and a near cessation of agro-processing. We discuss these aspects of the ensuing conflict in view of the uncertainty about political and economic developments and propose policy recommendations for rebuilding Sudan’s agri-food system holistically under different scenarios.

Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system

Wiebelt, Manfred

Zhu, Tingju

Stepanyan, Davit

Grethe, Harald

Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Siddig, Khalid

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