Maarten Gehem

Sijbren de Jong

Frank Bekkers

Marjolein de Ridder

Willem Auping

Supply and demand of resources are connected in multiple and complex ways. This interconnectivity has been framed as the global resource nexus. This study focuses on the nexus of five essential natural resources: land, food, energy, water, and minerals. In order to meet the demand for resources from present and future generations, strategic thinking about interdependencies between the supply of and demand for resources is paramount. This report provides insight into the complex interaction between resource supply and demand, global megatrends such as economic growth, climate change, urbanization and demographics, and broader nexus variables such as human resources, technology, governance, social and political factors and instability. Comprising case studies on soy from Brazil, cocoa from Côte d’Ivoire and palm oil from Malaysia, the report illustrates how the nexus dynamics create various risks to the sustainable security of supply of agricultural commodities that are of high importance to the Dutch agri-food sector. The results of this research can be used to strengthen existing initiatives for sustainable supply chain management, and to facilitate policy making in this field. To this end, the report contains a chapter with recommendations on how policymakers can use the global resource nexus framework proposed in this report.

IMPACT ON SUSTAINABLE SECURITY OF SUPPLY OF AGRI-FOOD IMPORTS FOR THE NETHERLANDS

The Global Resource Nexus

Artur Usanov

Myrthe van der Gaast

Joost Kraak

Reinier Bergema

A data analysis of the impact of a circular economy on resource-dependent developing nations

The circular economy and developing countries

Tim Sweijs

Stephan De Spiegeleire 

Willem Oosterveld 

Hannes Roos

Frank Bekkers 

Robert de Rave

Karlijn Jans 

Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence. The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation. The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included.

Volatility and friction in the age of disintermediation

Stephan De Spiegeleire

Petra Vermeulen

Kamal Eldin Salah

Dana Polácková

Willem Th. Oosterveld

Towards a new cooperation portfolio for defense

Better Together

 Marjolein de Ridder

Joris van Esch

This report was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Defense (MOD) with the aim of strengthening Dutch policy on economic security. It specifically investigates ways in which the Dutch armed forces can contribute to resolving economic security challenges for the Netherlands

ECONOMIC SECURITY, ENERGY SECURITY

NO BLOOD FOR OIL?

Sijbren de Jong

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