Michael Shurkin

Stephanie Pezard

This report examines prospects for stabilization in Mali; Mali's peace settlements since the early 1990s; factors contributing to stability in Mali's neighbor, Niger; and whether Niger might offer lessons for Mali.

Past Agreements, Local Conflicts, and the Prospects for a Durable Settlement

Achieving Peace in Northern Mali

Jennifer Kavanagh

Bryan Frederick

Nathan Chandler

Alexandra Stark

James Hoobler

Jooeun Kim

In this report, the authors create a framework that can be used to rigorously consider the trade-offs involved in U.S. military intervention decisions following the outbreak of a war or crisis. This framework can provide a better understanding of the relationships between intervention timing, intervention size, and intervention outcomes to inform future debates about whether, when, and with what size force to undertake a military intervention.

Whether, When, and with What Size Force to Intervene

Assessing Trade-Offs in U.S. Military Intervention Decisions

Scott Stephenson

Abbie Tingstad

Kristin Van Abel

This report examines security challenges that could alter Russia's current cooperative stance in the Arctic, explores how these could undermine Arctic cooperation, and offers recommendations for the U.S. government to manage risks to cooperation.

Planning for Regional Change in the Far North

Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia

James Dobbins

Laurel E. Miller

Christopher S. Chivvis

Julie E. Taylor

"This volume analyzes the impediments that local conditions pose to successful outcomes of nation-building interventions in conflict-affected areas. Previous RAND studies of nation-building focused on external interveners' activities. This volume shifts the focus to internal circumstances, first identifying the conditions that gave rise to conflicts or threatened to perpetuate them, and then determining how external and local actors were able to modify or work around them to promote enduring peace. It examines in depth six varied societies: Cambodia, El Salvador, Bosnia and Herzegovina, East Timor, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It then analyzes a larger set of 20 major post-Cold War nation-building interventions. The authors assess the risk of renewed conflict at the onset of the interventions and subsequent progress along five dimensions: security, democratization, government effectiveness, economic growth, and human development. They find that transformation of many of the specific conditions that gave rise to or fueled conflict often is not feasible in the time frame of nation-building operations but that such transformation has not proven essential to achieving the primary goal of nation-building -- establishing peace. Most interventions in the past 25 years have led to enduring peace, as well as some degree of improvement in the other dimensions assessed. The findings suggest the importance of setting realistic expectations -- neither expecting nation-building operations to quickly lift countries out of poverty and create liberal democracies, nor being swayed by a negative stereotype of nation-building that does not recognize its signal achievements in the great majority of cases."--Page 4 of cover.

Local Factors in Nation-Building

Overcoming Obstacles to Peace

Andrew Radin

Keith Crane

Thomas S. Szayna

F. Stephen Larrabee

Given Russia’s annexation of Crimea and continued aggression in eastern Ukraine, Europe must reassess its approach to a regional security environment previously thought to be stable and relatively benign. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation and examines four areas of potential European vulnerability: military, trade and investment, energy, and politics.

European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures

Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis

S. Rebecca Zimmerman

"This report examines Mali's counterterrorism requirements in light of recent evolutions in the country's security environment. In spite of the achievements of France, the United Nations, and the European Union, the terrorist threat in Mali is growing, but Mali's military remains largely ineffective. Part of the challenge is the interconnected nature of Mali's terrorist problem and the political strife that afflicts Mali's northern half, which the peace agreement signed in Algiers in June 2015 only somewhat addresses. Moreover, Bamako's response remains focused to an inappropriate degree on acquiring the military capabilities it hopes will help redress the balance of power in the North while leveraging proxy ethnic militias. These militias, though more effective on the battlefield than Mali's own forces, have the potential to further aggravate northern Mali's instability. The report argues that it is not possible to strengthen Mali's counterterrorism capabilities in isolation from its general military capabilities, which are in need of fundamental reforms. Such reforms should include making the armed forces more inclusive of minority groups and more attentive to relations with northern communities, improving the effectiveness and accountability of defense institutions, building human capital and leadership, and enhancing operational capabilities. In all cases, the United States must coordinate its efforts with the other actors on the ground in Mali, especially the French and the European Union, to ensure complementarity."--Publisher's web site.

Improving Counterterrorism Capabilities

Mali's Next Battle

Stephanie Pezard

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