William R. Thompson

Leonid E. Grinin

Andrey V. Korotayev

Stephen I. Ternyik

Tessaleno C. Devezas

Brian J. L. Berry

Euel Elliott

Leo Nefiodow

Valentina M. Bondarenko

Zenonas Norkus

Sergey Yu. Malkov

Arno Tausсh

Marco Gallegati

Elżbieta Mączyńska

Anthony Harper

Though the researchers of the theory of long and medium-term cycles are certainly worried about the economic situation, they understand that the cyclicity still remains an inevitable attribute of economic development. And Juglar's aphorism that crisis is a consequence of the preceded prosperity is still true. In this third issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ with the subtitle ‘Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts’, we present a number of insight contributions on nature, egularities, and interconnections among cycles of different duration. Some economic cycles may result in a severe economic crisis. The current one shows once again the importance of the study of cyclical dynamics and its peculiarities. Between the 1980s and 1990s the Keynesian receipts were replaced by neoliberal and monetarist ones which seemed to be miraculous as well. The depleted growth was marked with the largest global crisis of 2008 which also showed that within globalization when regulation in the international arena is impossible yet, there recur the signs of Juglar cycles of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries with their uncontrollable upwards and sharp declines evolving into collapses and panic. This is supported by the fact that for eight years the world has been at the depressive phase. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization. This research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for the Humanities (Project No 16-02-14053 г).

Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts

KONDRATIEFF WAVES

Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues

A 270-page time travel along the routes that led to the birth of Globalization, contributing robust evidence regarding the pioneering role of the Portuguese in this important chapter in the evolution of the world system. The Portuguese alone originated the maritime routes on a global scale and this feat will remain recorded in human history for the millennia to come. INNOVATION & STRATEGY IN MODERN HISTORY The world system’s telltale signature unveils the emergence of the first globalizing power Five main theses are defended in this book: • History is not a mere accumulation of past facts, the fruit of chance and uncertainty, and the Science of History is not a simplistic narrative of past ‘stories.’ • Globalization is an evolutionary and irreversible process, initially conceived in China around the 10th century, and born with the Portuguese Discoveries movement in the 15th and 16th centuries. • The Portuguese were pioneers in the process that led to the transition to a true global system of cultural and commercial exchange. • The application of systemic methodology to the analysis of History allows for the construction of viable future scenarios. • There is an inheritance from the Portuguese generations active during the apex period between the 15th and 16th centuries (the “Discoveries Matrix”), as well as a portfolio of acquired knowledge regarding this country’s capacity for resilience and its historical relationship to some of the emerging 21st century powers.

Why the Portuguese Surprised the World

Pioneers of Globalization

o pioneiro da globalização : a Herança das descobertas

Portugal

"Considerable progress has been made in understanding the underlying mechanisms driving the long-wave behavior of the world socioeconomic development. In spite of this progress one recognizes that many aspects related with these underlying driving forces remained unsolved. One of these aspects endured, perhaps as the most controversial one: the close relationship between K-waves and the outbreak of major wars. Social scientists and politicians are well acquainted with the fact that chance events have been responsible for the outbreak of wars and their course and outcome. Two main trends are now acknowledged: the increasing recognition of the existence of some cyclical patterns of warfare involving the core of the world system, and a shift toward newly evolving patterns involving non-state actors and asymmetric warfare. We may tentatively agree that wars are not merely the result of blind social and political forces, but patterned according to long socioeconomic cycles and the result of deep and general laws underlying the co-evolutionary unfolding of the world system. In the first part of this book, the reader will find a mix of contributions dealing with new visions or revisions of the concept of long waves considered from very different perspectives related to their unfolding. Those contributions discussing the issue of K-waves and their relation with military conflicts objectively, following old and / or new conceptualizations of the phenomenon, were selected to form the books second part. Finally those contributions with strong emphasis on the analysis of future scenarios, related or not related with warfare and / or world security compose the body of the third part."

Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security

Tessaleno C. Devezas

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