Peter A. Wilson

Thomas S. Szayna

Scott Pace

Olga Oliker

In the region of Central Asia and South Caucasus, what is the potential for armed conflict, and how might such outbreaks escalate to a level that could involve U.S. forces? The authors evaluate the key political, economic, and societal faultlines underlying the likelihood of conflict in the region, assessing their implications for regional stability and for U.S. interests and potential involvement over the next 10 to 15 years.

Implications for the U.S. Army

Faultlines of Conflict in Central Asia and the South Caucasus

This report examines the Muslim dimension of the ongoing ethno- national ferment affecting the Soviet armed forces. In particular, it analyzes the impact of the rapidly increasing Muslim cohort on the cohesion of the Soviet military by focusing on factors affecting the ability and reliability of Muslim servicemen today. Problems such as language deficiencies, trainability, and socialization are discussed in detail, as are efforts by the military leadership to ameliorate them. The report also critiques some earlier Western methodologies dealing with the subject and addresses the likely implications of the ethnic ferment for armed forces reform. The report is based on information available as of May 1990.

The Muslim Dimension

The Ethnic Factor in the Soviet Armed Forces

Brooke Stearns Lawson

Terrence K. Kelly

Derek Eaton

James E. II Barnett

How can the Army help make key civilian agencies more capable partners in stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations? The authors identify the civilian agencies that should be involved in such operations, then locate the necessary skill sets. They then assess the capacity of the civilian agencies to participate in SSTR operations and analyze the recurring structural problems that have plagued their attempts to do so.

Integrating Civilian Agencies in Stability Operations

Angela O'Mahony

William Welser, IV

RAND Corporation researchers identified three key operational challenges that forward-deployed personnel have encountered and then assessed the extent to which persistent, networked, and distributed operations can mitigate these challenges.

Insights from Forward-Deployed Sof Personnel SOF Personnel

Supporting Persistent and Networked Special Operations Forces (SOF) Operations

Andrew Radin

Keith Crane

Stephanie Pezard

Nathan Chandler

F. Stephen Larrabee

Given Russia’s annexation of Crimea and continued aggression in eastern Ukraine, Europe must reassess its approach to a regional security environment previously thought to be stable and relatively benign. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation and examines four areas of potential European vulnerability: military, trade and investment, energy, and politics.

European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures

Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis

Jennifer Kavanagh

Stephen Watts

Bryan Frederick

Tova C. Norlen

Phoenix Voorhies

Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.

An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections

Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers

Thomas S. Szayna

Books

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