W. Andrew Terrill

This monograph considers both the future of Iraq and the differences and similarities between events in Iraq and the Arab Spring states. The author analyzes the nature of Iraqi de-Ba?athification and evaluates the rationales and results of actions taken by both Americans and Iraqis involved in the process. While there are differences between the formation of Iraq's post-Hussein government and the efforts of Arab Spring governing bodies to restructure their political institutions, it is possible to identify parallels. As in Iraq, new Arab Spring governments have to apportion power, build or reform key institutions, establish political legitimacy for those institutions, and accommodate the expectations of their publics in a post-revolutionary environment. A great deal can go wrong, and any lessons that can be gleaned will be of value to those nations facing these problems, as well as to regional and extra-regional allies seeking to help them. (Originally published by SSI)

Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program for Iraq's Future and the Arab Revolutions

In recent years, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been widely recognized as a more dangerous regional and international terrorist organization than the original al-Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden until his death in 2011. In 2010-11, AQAP was able to present a strong challenge to Yemen's government by capturing and retaining large areas in the southern part of the country. Yemen's new reform President defeated AQAP and recaptured areas under their control in 2012, but the terrorists remain an extremely dangerous force seeking to reassert themselves at this time of transition in Yemen.

The Struggle for Yemen and the Challenge of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

This monograph analyzes military escalation and intrawar deterrence by examining two key wars where these concepts became especially relevant: the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq. A central conclusion of this monograph is that intrawar deterrence is an inherently fragile concept, and that the nonuse of weapons of mass destruction in both wars was the result of a number of positive factors that may not be repeated in future conflicts.

Escalation and Intrawar Deterrence During Limited Wars in the Middle East

Regional Fears of Western Primacy and the Future of U.S. Middle Eastern Basing Policy

The conflicts in Yemen and U.S. national security -- Introduction -- The Yemeni political system in crisis -- Yemen's security concerns with the Houthi rebellion and the Southern secessionists -- The Houthi rebellion -- The Southern movement -- Yemeni regional politics and the relationship with Saudi Arabia -- The origins and development of the Al-Qaeda presence in Yemen -- The intensification and expansion of the Al-Qaeda threat in Yemen -- U.S. interests and policies involving Yemen -- Conclusion and recommendations.

The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security

The conflicts in Yemen and U.S. national security -- Introduction -- The Yemeni political system in crisis -- Yemen's security concerns with the Houthi rebellion and the Southern secessionists -- The Houthi rebellion -- The Southern movement -- Yemeni regional politics and the relationship with Saudi Arabia -- The origins and development of the Al-Qaeda presence in Yemen -- The intensification and expansion of the Al-Qaeda threat in Yemen -- U.S. interests and policies involving Yemen -- Conclusion and recommendations

Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute

"This monograph considers both the future of Iraq and the differences and similarities between events in Iraq and the Arab Spring states. The author analyzes the nature of Iraqi de-Ba'athification and carefully evaluates the rationales and results of actions taken by both Americans and Iraqis involved in the process. While there are many differences between the formation of Iraq's post-Saddam Hussein government and the current efforts of some Arab Spring governing bodies to restructure their political institutions, it is possible to identify parallels between Iraq and Arab Spring countries. As in Iraq, new Arab Spring governments will have to apportion power, build or reform key institutions, establish political legitimacy for those institutions, and accommodate the enhanced expectations of their publics in a post-revolutionary environment. A great deal can go wrong in these circumstances, and any lessons that can be gleaned from earlier conflicts will be of considerable value to those nations facing these problems, as well as their regional and extra-regional allies seeking to help them. Moreover, officers and senior noncommissioned officers of the U.S. Army must realize that they may often have unique opportunities and unique credibility to offer advice on the lessons of Iraq to their counterparts in some of the Arab Spring nations."-- Publisher's website.

W. Andrew Terrill

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