Tim Sweijs

Willem Oosterveld 

Stephan de Spiegeleire

After the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed his indignation by stating that: “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text,” This statement reflected a widely held view in the West that territorial conflict belongs to the past. The reality, unfortunately, is that territory is still seen by some to be at a premium for strategic, economic and other reasons. Territorial disputes continue to fuel contemporary militarized conflicts,1 and can be found in all parts of the world. Territory and war have been inextricably linked throughout the history of the Westphalian world system. Four out of every five wars fought between the end of the Thirty Years War (1648) and the Cold War (1989) involved territorial disputes. From the Congress of Vienna (1815) to the attacks of 9/11 (2001), almost one third of all interstate conflicts involved territorial conflict.2 In 2013, 51 out of 89 ongoing interstate conflicts involved territorial disputes.3 Indeed, in modern times, territorial ambitions do not cease to stir the hearts and minds of combatants from Latin America to East Asia. They have even been eating away at the fringes of Europe itself, seen by some as an island of ‘post-Westphalian’ tranquility.

Territorial Conflict in Today's World

Pushing the Boundaries

Sijbren de Jong

Artur Usanov

Stephan De Spiegeleire 

Hannes Roos

Frank Bekkers 

Robert de Rave

Karlijn Jans 

Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence. The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation. The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included.

Volatility and friction in the age of disintermediation

Willem Oosterveld

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