R. Alexander Bentley

Michael J. O'Brien

William A. Brock

How people make decisions in an era of too much information and fake news. Humans originally evolved in a world of few choices. Prehistoric, preindustrial, and predigital eras required fewer decisions than today's all-access, always-on world of too much information. Economists have largely discarded the idea that agents act rationally and the market follows suit. It seems that no matter how small or innocuous a decision might seem, there's almost no way to guess the effect it might have. The authors of The Importance of Small Decisions view decisions and their outcomes from a different perspective: as key elements in the evolution of culture. In this trailblazing book, they examine different kinds of decisions and map the outcomes, both short- and long-term. Drawing on this, they introduce a map of social behavior that captures the essential elements of human decision-making. The authors look at the New England Patriots' decision in 2000 to draft an underachieving college quarterback named Tom Brady; they consider Warren Buffett's investment strategy; and they chart the “dancing landscape” of a college applicant's decision-making environment. Finally, they show that decisions can be ranked according to transparency of choice and social influence. When fake news seems indistinguishable from real news and when the internet offers a cacophony of voices, they warn, we can't afford to crowdsource our decisions.

The Importance of Small Decisions

Gary Chamberlain

Spectral Analysis Connot Tell a Macroeconometrician Wheter His Time Series Came from a Stochastic Economy Or a Deterministic Economy

William Allen Brock

A. G. Malliaris

Walter F Mullady Sr Professor of Economics and Finance A G Malliaris

This is the first economics work of its kind offering the economist the opportunity to acquire new and important analytical tools. It introduces the reader to three advanced mathematical methods by presenting both their theoretical bases and their applications to a wide range of economic models. The mathematical methods presented are ordinary differential equations, stability techniques and chaotic dynamics. Topics such as existence, continuation of solutions, uniqueness, dependence on initial data and parameters, linear systems, stability of linear systems, two dimensional phase analysis, local and global stability, the stability manifold, stability of optimal control and empirical tests for chaotic dynamics are covered and their use in economic theory is illustrated in numerous applications. These applications include microeconomic dynamics, investment theory, macroeconomic policies, capital theory, business cycles, financial economics and many others. All chapters conclude with two sections on miscellaneous applications and exercises and further remarks and references. In total the reader will find a valuable guide to over 500 selected references that use differential equations, stability analysis and chaotic dynamics. Graduate students in economics with a special interest in economic theory, economic researchers and applied mathematicians will all benefit from this volume.

Differential Equations, Stability, and Chaos in Dynamic Economics

William A. Brock

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