Nin-Pratt, Alejandro

Zambrano, Patricia

Wood-Sichra, Ulrike

Kato, Edward

Komen, John

Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamin

Yirga, Chilot

Habte, Endeshaw

Chambers, Judith A.

Ethiopian economy has grown at an average rate that surpasses that of almost any other economy in the region over the last two decades. At the center of this development is the high priority placed on accelerating agricultural growth and achieving food security and poverty alleviation. Over the years, maize has become a main food security crop, widely produced and consumed by smallholder farmers, second only to teff in terms of area. Despite the sustained growth of maize production over the years, its yields continue to be lower than the world’s average. Of the many abiotic and biotic constraints that maize faces, insect attacks and droughts are two critical ones. The genetically modified TELA maize can help address these constraints. This paper estimates the economic benefits of adopting this new technology and the opportunity cost that Ethiopia will incur if its adoption is delayed. The analysis is conducted using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model run with the newly developed DREAMpy software, data drawn from the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey, Wave 3 2015-2016, econometric estimations using these survey data, and other local data and sources. The estimations show that if the drought tolerant and insect resistant TELA maize is planted in 2023 the net present-value of benefits for producers and consumers would be around $850 million. Producers from the mid-altitude maize zone will be the main beneficiaries, given the targeted area of TELA maize. Consumers from all areas will benefit from the projected reduction in price. If the adoption of this new technology is delayed by 5 years, the estimated net present value of benefits will fall by 30 percent. These costs underscore the importance of having a regulatory system that is efficient, predictable, and transparent and ensures that the projected economic benefits are realized.

GM maize in Ethiopia: An ex ante economic assessment of TELA, a drought tolerant and insect resistant maize

Hanson, Hillary

Kikulwe, Enoch Mutebi

Oloka, Herbert Kefa

The Government of Uganda has implemented programs and policies to improve the agricultural sector’s recent underperformance. Uganda’s two main food security crops, bananas and cassava, have been critically affected by two diseases: Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) and Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD). The effectiveness of agronomic and cultural practices to control these diseases has been limited, requiring better alternatives. The Ugandan R&D sector in collaboration with international partners have developed genetically engineered innovations that can control both diseases. To examine the potential benefits to consumers and producers from the adoption of genetically engineered banana and cassava with resistance to BXW and CBSD, we use a set of economic impact assessment methods. These include an economic surplus model implemented via IFPRI’s DREAMpy framework, a real options model and a limited gender assessment. Results from the economic surplus approach suggest that the adoption of both technologies can benefit Uganda. These results were confirmed for the case of bananas and partially for the case of cassava using the real options and the gender assessment performed. Results from this assessment are predicated on Uganda maintaining an enabling environment that will ensure the deployment and use of both innovations. Looking forward, continuing to improve enabling environment for innovation in Uganda will require addressing current R&D, regulatory, technology deployment and product stewardship processes constraints.

Benefits from the adoption of genetically engineered innovations in the Ugandan banana and cassava sectors: An ex ante analysis

Phillip, Dayo

Chambers, Judy A.

Since oil prices’ decline in 2014, agriculture has received renewed interest in Nigeria as a key sector for achieving sustainable growth and generating foreign exchange. One of the identified obstacles to achieving these goals is the need to improve agricultural productivity. Cowpea is one of the priority crops identified for productivity improvement. Currently cowpea yields are below 900 kg/ha, but it has been shown that with the right technology, these yields could potentially double. One of the main biotic constraints for cowpea is the infestation of the insect pod borer (Maruca Vitrata). No conventional variety has been developed to resist this pest, but with the use of biotechnology and the sustained collaboration of national and international partners over many years, there is now a genetically modified pod-borer-resistant (or more generally insect-resistant) cowpea. This paper estimates the potential economic benefits of adopting this new technology and the cost that Nigeria will incur if this adoption is delayed. The analysis is conducted using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model run with the newly developed DREAMpy software, data drawn from the Nigeria General Household Survey 2015–2016, estimations using these data, and other local sources. The estimations show that if the insect-resistant cowpea is planted in 2020, the net present-value benefits for producers and consumers would be around US$350 million, 70 percent of which would be accrued by producers. The distribution of benefits by region show that Sudan-Sahel will accrue the most benefits, given the relative concentration of cowpea in this region and the estimated higher adoption rates and yield changes. Almost half of producers’ total benefit will go to large producers, who represent only 20 percent of all cowpea producers, while small producers, representing half of all cowpea producers, will receive 24 percent of the benefit. Additionally, the analysis shows that a five-year regulatory delay will decrease the estimated benefits by around 35 percent. While Nigeria already has in place a competent biosafety system that will most likely ensure that these regulatory delays will not materialize, these estimations highlight the importance of having an evidence-based, efficient, predictable, and transparent regulatory system to ensure that the expected economic benefits are realized.

Insect-resistant cowpea in Nigeria: An ex ante economic assessment of a crop improvement initiative

Zambrano, Patricia

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