Such is the dire prophecy of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Newman, and Alvin Rabushka, whose Red Flag over Hong Kong casts a cold eye on the future prospects of "the world's best example of the free-market economy, working as textbooks say it should." Applying to that unknown future a dynamic model of decision making that rests on the collection of data from a wide range of expert observers, the authors boldly seek to quantify human behavior and so derive a precise and reliable early forecast of Hong Kong's destiny at the hands of its communist masters.