Graham E. Fuller

Rand Corporation

This study discusses the causes of the intifada — the Palestinian uprising on the West Bank — as well as its evolution and institutionalization, and its ultimate goals. It treats the complex question of local leadership and the natural state of tension between internal and external (Palestine Liberation Organization, or PLO) Palestinian leadership. It explores the long-term ambivalence of Jordan toward the West Bank and the definitive death of the "Jordanian option." It reviews the character and implications of the "Palestinian option," along with the key political dilemmas the PLO must eventually resolve. It also considers Israeli dilemmas. Finally, the report discusses the new international factors affecting the situation. The author concludes that a Palestinian state on the West Bank is overwhelmingly the most probable long-term outcome of the present struggle.

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