Johanna Zmud

The four future scenarios were developed using a Strategic Assumptions Surfacing and Testing (SAST) technique and include the following: (1) Momentum: gradual change without radical shifts; (2) Technology Triumphs: technology solves many present-day problems; (3) Global Chaos: a collapse in globalism and sustainability, and (4) Gentle Footprint: a widespread shift to low-impact living. The model does not predict which scenario is most likely; instead it predicts how travel demand will change under each of the five sectors: socio-demographics, travel behavior, land use, employment, and transportation supply. The accompanying CD (CRP-CD-152) contains the Impacts 2050 software tool, the user's guide, a PowerPoint presentation about the research, and the research brief. The Impacts 2050 tool enables modeling of changes in these sectors due to socio-demographic changes, the interplay between sectors, and external factors such as attitudes and technology.

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