United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

John Whalley

This paper discusses the results from the general equilibrium trade models executed towards the end of the Uruguay Round, reporting both aggregate and regional gains. The paper argues that there are substantial inconsistencies across model results which are sometimes hard to explain. One model shows most of the gains come from agricultural liberalisation, another from textiles, and yet another from tariff cuts. One model shows developing countries account for around 10 per cent of the total gain, another shows them to gain over 50 per cent. Other differences are also shown. Differences occur even when similar data sets and benchmark years are used, and are hard to explain on the basis of the parametric specifications for the models, although these are frequently poorly described. The paper also discusses the verification of models relative to behaviour since the Round concluded, expressing scepticism as to its feasibility. The implications for the developing countries and possible ways of making these models more usable for developing countries for the next round of trade negotiations are also discussed.

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