Keir Giles

Susanna Eskola

"Because of both history and geography, the Finnish relationship with Russia is unique in Europe. At the same time the Finnish perception of Russia as a source of security challenges is acute. Finland is engaged in a debate over whether it would be desirable to seek membership of NATO in order to mitigate these challenges. A full and frank debate has been difficult because it is constrained by a range of political and societal taboos; nevertheless there are indicators that a move toward NATO is not impossible in the foreseeable future. If Finland were to opt for joining NATO, this would register in Russian defence and security thinking as a serious concern. Unlike the Baltic accession in 2004, the response from the newly assertive Russia could potentially be swift and damaging. This would also have implications for Russian relations with the EU, of which Finland has been a member since 1995. Many in Finland see the EU as a security provider, and there is confusion in the national debate between EU or Nordic security policy cooperation and an actual defensive alliance. Finland's NATO argument is a complex and multi-faceted one, made even more so by regional and cultural specifics; but it needs to be understood because its result could have a major impact on Russia's relationships with both NATO and the EU."--P.i.

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